82 teams have sealed a postseason berth. Nine teams have won a conference championship. In less than 24 hours, we’ll find out how those teams will shuffle into the College Football Playoff and the remaining bowl games. That means we have just enough time for one final edition of our college football bowl projections.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 5 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 12 Clemson Tigers
- No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers
If you were praying for chaos from the conference championship games, you got it in droves eventually. The Mountain West and Big 12 title games fell as expected, but once the SEC Championship Game entered the conversation, our college football bowl projections really started to warp like we haven’t seen at any other point during this wildest of seasons.
FOLLOW ALONG: Track Every Transfer Portal Entrant in our CFN Transfer Portal Tracker now!
The Texas Longhorns’ overtime loss to the Georgia Bulldogs provided the first major change to the playoff projection. Steve Sarkisian’s team has long been considered a shoo-in for the quarterfinal, but it’s never wise to rule out a Kirby Smart team, and the Bulldogs will head to the Sugar Bowl as SEC champion.
The Penn State Nittany Lions’ loss to the Oregon Ducks was expected, and they could drop from the third-ranked team to the eighth-seed when head-to-head is factored in against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Finally, the committee set the scene for the SMU Mustangs falling out of the 12-team playoff with a loss to the Clemson Tigers, and even a close defeat won’t help their cause.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 12 Clemson
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Penn State
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Ohio State
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our latest College Football Playoff bowl projections, will be Boise State (Mountain West), Arizona State (Big 12), Oregon (Big Ten), and Georgia (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific and location-related bowls, as listed above.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
We’ve not seen anything out of the Alabama Crimson Tide this season to believe they could trouble a dominant Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense or contain their ground game — especially on a cold night in South Bend. That sets up a clash against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, with a similar story unfolding to lead us to believe Marcus Freeman’s team would have the advantage.
Ohio State has already overcome Indiana once, and our college football bowl projections suggest they could do the same again, advancing to a quarterfinal showdown with a Georgia team that might be better without Carson Beck. Penn State is a 2.5-point favorite to overcome Tennessee in the first round, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 4 Arizona State
The Sugar Bowl matchup between Georgia and Ohio State should be a defensive slugfest with a strong ground game influence. While you shouldn’t be swayed by recency bias, it’s hard to imagine the offensive unit we saw against the Michigan Wolverines having any success against the Bulldogs, who book a spot in the Orange Bowl against a surging Notre Dame team.
In the other semifinal, it’s honestly difficult to see any team stopping Oregon this season, especially a Penn State team that already came up short against the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game. In our college football bowl projections, they come up against an Arizona State team that should be able to feast on the 73rd-ranked run defense with Cam Skattebo.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia
Oregon’s progress all the way to the national title game has been a popular theme of our college football playoff predictions from early on, and there is no reason to believe that the Ducks won’t be playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Jan. 20. Will Stein has their offense moving with Dillon Gabriel at QB, and the defense has as just as many playmakers, making them a potent threat.
There have been more question marks about Georgia this year, but when the chips are down and they’re doubted, Smart’s team always finds a way, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them back in Atlanta toward the end of January. The CFN FPM gives them a 53.8% chance of beating Notre Dame in the semifinal and setting up what could be a classic title game matchup.
Projections for the Remaining 2024 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Salute To Veterans Bowl
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan (matchup confirmed)
Frisco Bowl
Memphis vs. West Virginia (matchup confirmed)
Boca Raton Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (matchup confirmed)
LA Bowl
UNLV vs. Cal
New Orleans Bowl
Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston (matchup confirmed)
Cure Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Ohio
Gasparilla Bowl
UTSA vs. Arkansas
Myrtle Beach Bowl
UConn vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo vs. Louisiana
Hawaii Bowl
South Florida vs. San Jose State
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Nebraska vs. Bowling Green
Rate Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
68 Ventures Bowl
Texas State vs. Northern Illinois
Armed Forces Bowl
Arkansas State vs. North Texas
Birmingham Bowl
Vanderbilt vs. NC State
Liberty Bowl
TCU vs. Florida
Las Vegas Bowl
USC vs. LSU
Fenway Bowl
North Carolina vs. Tulane
Pinstripe Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Marshall
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. BYU
Arizona Bowl
Colorado State vs. Miami (OH)
Military Bowl
Boston College vs. Navy
Alamo Bowl
Iowa State vs. Colorado
Independence Bowl
Kansas State vs. Army
Music City Bowl
Iowa vs. Texas A&M
ReliaQuest Bowl
Louisville vs. Minnesota
Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl
Illinois vs. South Carolina
Texas Bowl
Baylor vs. Missouri
Gator Bowl
Duke vs. Ole Miss
First Responder Bowl
East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Syracuse vs. Michigan
Bahamas Bowl
Liberty vs. Buffalo (matchup confirmed)
Holiday Bowl
SMU vs. Washington State
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.