The post-Week 13 College Football Playoff Rankings were released on Tuesday night, providing the clearest clarity yet on how the inaugural 12-team format might look when the postseason tournament begins on December 20.
What does it all mean? Our latest college football bowl projections provide a peek into the future outlook for all 134 teams.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils
- No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 10 SMU Mustangs
- No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers
Several potential flashpoints remained unchanged in the latest CFP rankings, with Ohio State’s win over previously fifth-ranked Indiana not proving enough to vault them over the Oregon Ducks in the eyes of the selection committee. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s crushing win over the undefeated Army Black Knights wasn’t enough to see them swap places with Penn State after Week 13.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, there were a number of moves that defined the direction of our college football bowl projections. The Alabama Crimson Tide are on the outside looking in for the playoff but remain the highest-ranked of the three loss SEC teams, which will prove pivotal for bowl destinations, even if they don’t find a way to sneak an “at-large” bid to the 12-team tournament.
Arizona State’s win over the BYU Cougars puts them in the driving seat for the Big 12 Championship Game, and a first-round bye awaits if they can beat the Arizona Wildcats on the road and take the conference crown. The Tulane Green Wave is menacing around them, but if the Sun Devils can hold firm, their destiny is fully within their own grasp.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Georgia
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our latest College Football Playoff predictions, will be Boise State (Mountain West), Miami (ACC), Oregon (Big Ten), and Texas (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific and location-related bowls, as listed above.
The fifth seed is the hot ticket in the new College Football Playoff format, as our college football bowl projections showcase. Ohio State would be a significant favorite at home to Arizona State. Then they’d get the (alleged) easier draw in the quarterfinals, taking on the fourth-seed, which still projects to be Boise State following the latest rankings reveal.
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In fact, home-field advantage is a recurring theme in these bowl projections. Georgia hasn’t lost in Athens this season, and our College Football Playoff Meter gives the Bulldogs a 65.7% chance of keeping that record clean and advancing to the quarterfinal, where the bracket would direct them to the Rose Bowl and a date with an Oregon team that has looked capable of beating anyone.
Notre Dame and Penn State have both dropped a game at home this year, but South Bend and University Park would be formidable environments to play in late in December. The Nittany Lions avoided Indiana in the regular season but have a hypothetical 3.5-point advantage over the Hoosiers, setting up a Peach Bowl clash with Miami. Notre Dame would take on Texas.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Ohio State
While it’s never advisable to bet against a Kirby Smart-led Georgia team in a big game, Oregon has the defensive front to provide the pressure that has crumbled Carson Beck this season. The CFN FPM makes the Ducks a 5.5-point favorite in the quarterfinal, setting up a semifinal clash with the Buckeyes. That would likely be the final installment of a smash hit trilogy.
While I think Notre Dame has the weapons on both sides of the ball to trouble anyone this year, the Texas defense can hold the Irish ground game and put Riley Leonard in a world of hurt. Our college football bowl projections pit the Longhorns against a Penn State team that has the defense to subdue Cam Ward and the ground game to punish the Miami defense in the Peach Bowl.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Texas
Is Texas back? It’s become a cliche and joke in recent years, but after falling short of the title game a year ago, our bowl projections place the Longhorns in the College Football National Championship Game. Rather than Quinn Ewers and the offense powering their success, it’s the defense that should carry the program to their first title game of the playoff era.
But, can they succeed when they get there? According to the CFN FPM, Oregon has a 61.1% chance of beating the Longhorns. Dillon Gabriel has proven efficient in operating the Ducks’ offense since replacing Bo Nix, they have a dangerous ground game, and Dan Lanning’s team likely has a narrow advantage in the trenches despite both teams being loaded with superstars.
Projections for the Remaining 2024 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Camellia Bowl
Buffalo vs. Texas State
Frisco Bowl
Navy vs. Georgia Southern
Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis vs. South Alabama
LA Bowl
UNLV vs. Cal
New Orleans Bowl
Liberty vs. James Madison
Cure Bowl
Louisiana vs. Oklahoma
Gasparilla Bowl
South Florida vs. Florida
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Ohio vs. Arkansas State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. San Jose State
Hawaii Bowl
UTSA vs. New Mexico
Detroit Bowl
Rutgers vs. Bowling Green
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
UConn vs. TCU
68 Ventures Bowl
Marshall vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. North Texas
Birmingham Bowl
Arkansas vs. Pittsburgh
Liberty Bowl
Baylor vs. LSU
Las Vegas Bowl
USC vs. Missouri
Fenway Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tulane
Pinstripe Bowl
NC State vs. Nebraska
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Jacksonville State
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Louisville vs. BYU
Arizona Bowl
Colorado State vs. Miami (OH)
Military Bowl
North Carolina vs. Army
Alamo Bowl
Iowa State vs. Colorado
Independence Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Music City Bowl
Iowa vs. Texas A&M
ReliaQuest Bowl
Duke vs. Minnesota
Sun Bowl
Boston College vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl
Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl
Kansas State vs. South Carolina
Gator Bowl
Syracuse vs. Ole Miss
First Responder Bowl
East Carolina vs. West Virginia
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Michigan
Bahamas Bowl
Sam Houston vs. Western Michigan
Holiday Bowl
Clemson vs. Washington State
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