The USC Trojans will host their first Big Ten conference game at the Coliseum in Week 5, welcoming the Wisconsin Badgers to Southern California. USC is coming off a tough 27-24 loss on the road against Michigan in Week 4, while Wisconsin enters the matchup fresh off a bye week.
The timing of the bye was fortuitous for the Badgers, as they’re facing significant challenges, most notably the season-ending injury to starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. In his absence, redshirt sophomore Braedyn Locke got an extra week of preparation as he gears up for his first start of the season.
Wisconsin vs. USC Betting and DFS Preview
All Wisconsin vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 23.
- Spread
USC -14.5 - Moneyline
Wisconsin +475, USC -675 - Over/Under
50.5 - Game Time
Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, mostly sunny - How To Watch
CBS
This line has jumped a ton since it opened as USC -6. It has now climbed above two touchdowns to USC -14.5, primarily due to USC’s opening week win over LSU and Wisconsin being dominated by Alabama at home two weeks ago, 42-10.
The total hasn’t seen quite as much movement, falling from the opening number of 53.5 down to 50.5.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
USC suffered its first loss against the spread (ATS) on Saturday. As -4.5 road favorites at Michigan, they fell on a last-second Michigan touchdown 27-24. They come into this one 2-1 ATS on the season.
Wisconsin has struggled against the spread, failing to cover in all three of its early season contests, twice as a favorite and once as an underdog.
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
- QB Miller Moss, USC
- QB Braedyn Locke, Wisconsin
- RB Woody Marks, USC
- RB Chez Mellusi, Wisconsin
- WR Zachariah Branch, USC
- WR Will Pauling, Wisconsin
- WR Lake McRee, USC
The Wisconsin offense has been extremely disappointing under offensive coordinator Phil Longo. And now, with quarterback Van Dyke out for the season, it’s hard to know what to expect from the Badgers being led by Locke, making his first start of the season.
We know they like to get running back Chez Mellusi involved early, but his season hasn’t started as fast as he had hoped. Mellusi has only rushed for 70+ yards in one game this season and was held to just 66 yards rushing on 11 attempts against Alabama.
For USC, we know that Miller Moss can light it up, as he’s fresh off another excellent performance, this time on the road at Michigan. Moss threw for 283 yards and three touchdowns, and it looked like he had the Trojans positioned for a massive road victory until Michigan scored with six seconds remaining to take the lead for good.
Woody Marks also had a good outing against Michigan, running for his second straight 100-yard performance. On the season, Marks has rushed for three touchdowns and has added 11 catches with 86 receiving yards on top of that.
Prediction for Wisconsin vs. USC
I’ve only picked one Wisconsin game in 2024 and called for Wisconsin to be overwhelmed by Alabama at home, mainly because their offense can’t figure it out.
Now with veteran quarterback and Miami transfer Van Dyke out for the season, I don’t see things getting much better for the Badgers. When Longo was hired as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin under Luke Fickell, it appeared to be what the Badgers needed.
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They veered away from the traditional Wisconsin ground-and-pound mentality and instituted more of the air raid attack that Longo ran at North Carolina. The problem is that it just hasn’t happened consistently.
Wisconsin will have to learn from USC’s game against Michigan. The Wolverines finished with just 32 passing yards but ran for 290 yards and scored 27 points to beat the Trojans. The Badgers will have to get the ground game going in this one while they control the ball and the clock to keep things close.
I’m also not convinced that Locke is a massive downgrade at quarterback for the Badgers. Locke was reportedly in a tight competition with Van Dyke for the starting job throughout much of the offseason, and he also played well during garbage time against Alabama.
Locke came in, finished 13-of-26 passing for 125 yards, and threw for the lone Badger touchdown on the day against Alabama. With extra time to prepare during the bye week, Locke could be ready to seamlessly take over Wisconsin’s offense in this crucial Big Ten matchup.
While I like USC in this one, I believe they may be a bit overvalued, combined with a bit of an overreaction to the Badgers missing Van Dyke on offense. The Badgers keep this one close enough.
The Prediction: Wisconsin 23, USC 31
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