While the Wisconsin Badgers hold a narrow all-time series lead at 49-46-2, the Iowa Hawkeyes have claimed victory in the last two Heartland Trophy clashes. Will Iowa extend its winning streak in Week 10?
Our Wisconsin vs. Iowa prediction breaks down the matchup and offers key betting insights to help you make the sharpest wagers.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Wisconsin vs. Iowa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -2.5 - Spread
Iowa -3 - Moneyline
Iowa -148, Wisconsin +124 - Over/Under
41 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 2 - Location
Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, 6 mph winds, light rain - How To Watch
NBC
Attention all bettors: the over has hit in four of Wisconsin’s last six games and seven of Iowa’s last eight. Do with that information what you will.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As far as the spread, the Badgers have struggled against the Hawkeyes, going 1-4 ATS in the previous five matchups. However, they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests on the road, so the 2024 duel could be closer than expected.
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
Both programs are a win away from going bowling, but Wisconsin’s path is notably more difficult. Outside of the season finale against Minnesota, the Badgers own sub-50% win probabilities for the rest of the year.
- at Iowa: 45.7%
- vs. Oregon: 16.5%
- at Nebraska: 46.2%
- vs. Minnesota: 61.9%
Iowa’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes don’t have a win probability under 50%, which is highlighted by two 70+ rates on the road against UCLA and Maryland.
- vs. Wisconsin: 54.3%
- at UCLA: 75.3%
- at Maryland: 73.0%
- vs. Nebraska: 55.6%
Prediction for Wisconsin vs. Iowa
After having their three-game conference winning streak snapped by the Penn State Nittany Lions last week, the Badgers are aiming to start fresh with a win against the Hawkeyes. But it won’t come easy, as Kirk Ferentz’s squad just dominated Northwestern 40-14.
Iowa’s offense has hit 40 points in two of its last three games, largely powered by the bruising running of Kaleb Johnson (146 carries, 1,144 yards, and 16 touchdowns on the year).
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With Brendan Sullivan now stepping in for Cade McNamara, whose struggles have been notable, Iowa’s offense may reach an even higher level. Sullivan wrapped up last week’s game by completing 9 of 14 passes for 79 yards, adding eight carries for 41 yards and a touchdown.
“We decided during the week to rotate Brendan in on the third or fourth series,” Ferentz explained. “It worked out well. He did a nice job, and Cade was a bit shaken up after a hit.”
Sullivan now tops the depth chart, with McNamara completely out entering Week 10. While Sullivan might not light up Wisconsin’s stout defense, his dual-threat skill combined with Johnson’s dynamic ground game could be too much for the Badgers.
Wisconsin is facing its own QB challenge after losing starter Tyler Van Dyke for the season, bringing sophomore Braedyn Locke into the spotlight. Locke has managed the offense without major setbacks but has only completed 57.6% of his passes for seven touchdowns and six interceptions.
Take Iowa to win outright, cover the spread, and for both teams to score enough to push the total over.
Prediction: Iowa 27, Wisconsin 20
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