The MAC is the most wide-open conference in FBS college football, with six teams within one game of first place. The Western Michigan Broncos are one of them and will need to avoid a letdown to the rival Central Michigan Chippewas if they want to enter the final week of the regular season with a chance to make a bowl.
Despite the Broncos being better on paper, the games between the directional schools in Michigan always seem to defy conventional wisdom. Will the Broncos prevail? Find out which way we lean in this Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan prediction.
Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan Betting Preview
All Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Michigan -6 - Spread
Western Michigan -6.5 - Moneyline
Western Michigan -245, Central Michigan +200 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
Tuesday, Nov. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kelly/Shorts Stadium | Mount Pleasant, Michigan - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, rainy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Western Michigan got off to a slow start against a brutal non-conference slate but looked to have turned things around early in MAC play. But the Broncos are 0-2 since the conference games have moved to the midweek.
Central Michigan has struggled recently, riding a five-game losing streak, but the Chippewas have been substantially better at home than on the road.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread here is intriguing, as the Broncos started as 8.5-point favorites before the line dropped. With a total of 56.5, there’s an implied final score near 32-25 in favor of Western Michigan.
Western Michigan’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit lower on Western Michigan’s chances than the initial Vegas spread, and it seems like the betting public agrees with the line continuing to drop. The metric gives the Broncos a winning probability of 64.6%, which is close to their chances next week as well.
- at Central Michigan: 64.6%
- vs. Eastern Michigan: 65.7%
Central Michigan’s Winning Probability
Central Michigan desperately wants to finish the year on a high note, but it will be difficult. FPM gives the Chippewas a 48% chance to lose both of their remaining games, with a 35.4% chance to win on Tuesday.
- vs. Western Michigan: 35.4%
- at Northern Illinois: 25.1%
Prediction for Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan
If it’s possible to have an abnormally difficult schedule in the MAC, Central Michigan has had one. The Chippewas are 0-4 against the MAC’s four best teams, with two of those games coming on the road.
The Chippewas are much better at home than on the road. They also match up well with this Western Michigan team, especially when Central Michigan has the ball.
Not to oversimplify Central Michigan’s offense, but it comes down to a complete inability to move the ball through the air with any semblance of consistency and a multiple-and-dangerous rushing attack.
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The Broncos cannot stop the run defensively, allowing over five yards per carry and nearly 200 yards per game. That’s a bad combination against a Central Michigan rushing attack ranked inside the top 40 nationally. Western Michigan is also one of the worst teams in the MAC in stopping opponents from finishing drives, allowing 4.6 points per scoring opportunity.
This is all to say that I’m tempted to take the Chippewas at home here. While Central Michigan isn’t exactly playing great football right now, neither is Western Michigan. The Broncos have lost two straight and are 2-4 on the road.
Central Michigan should be able to do a ton of damage on the ground, and I think the Chippewas could go well over 200 yards on the ground. The defense just needs to do enough to put pressure on a Western Michigan offense that has been explosive but has struggled some down-to-down.
The key will be stopping star running back Jaden Nixon. If he’s allowed to get going, the Broncos should be able to outlast the Chippewas in a shootout.
While it won’t be a pretty showing from the Broncos’ defense, I think they can get a late turnover to seal this, but I like the Chippewas to cover.
Prediction: Western Michigan 31, Central Michigan 28
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