The Conference USA Championship Game is still two months away, but the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travel to Huntsville on Wednesday night to take on the Sam Houston Bearkats in a game that could shape which team plays in the title decider.
Our Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Betting Preview
All Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Kentucky -3 - Spread
Sam Houston -2.5 - Moneyline
Sam Houston -135, Western Kentucky +114 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium | Huntsville, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
46 degrees, clear and cool, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Huntsville hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for the Hilltoppers, with a 54-24 shellacking at the hands of their Wednesday night opponent the last time the two teams met in Texas. However, Tyson Helton’s team avenged that result one year ago with a narrow 28-23 win, meaning the programs enter a pivotal CUSA matchup all tied up with one win apiece.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That head-to-head tie might be a nod to the nature of the game we will witness. Both teams are 5-1 against the spread heading into Wednesday night, have evenly-matched scoring defenses, and the difference between the DraftKings odds and the CFN FPM spread showcases that the game could go either way.
Sam Houston has yet to lose as a moneyline favorite this season — which they’ve been since the books opened late last week. However, the spread and money line shifted slightly toward the road team in the hours leading up to the kickoff of this exciting CUSA encounter.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Western Kentucky has a 53.8% chance of winning on the road in Huntsville. The Hilltoppers have won every game they’ve been favored by our metric this season.
Here are the Western Kentucky win probabilities for the rest of the 2024 season:
- at Sam Houston: 53.8%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 92.8%
- at New Mexico State: 82.8%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 76.6%
- at Liberty: 37.4%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 68.8%
Sam Houston’s Winning Probability
Conversely, according to the CFN FPM, the Bearkats have a 46.2% chance of winning this all-CUSA matchup. However, it’s worth noting that the second-year FBS outfit has already overcome the projections once this season when they beat the Texas State Bobcats.
Here are the Sam Houston win probabilities for the rest of the 2024 season:
- vs. Western Kentucky: 46.2%
- at FIU: 60.6%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 65.7%
- at Kennesaw State: 82.8%
- at Jacksonville State: 49.4%
- vs. Liberty: 36.4%
Prediction for Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston
Western Kentucky enters Wednesday night with a 4-2 record after defeats to the Alabama Crimson Tide and Boston College Eagles, while Sam Houston’s only defeat on their way to a 5-1 record came from the UCF Knights. Both teams are undefeated in CUSA play, making this an undefeated conference matchup with significant repercussions for the conference title game.
Can the Bearkats continue their fairytale second season in the conference, or will Western Kentucky prove their mettle as a legitimate CUSA contender? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
Sam Houston enters the game as a favorite, and it’s easy to see why the oddsmakers are leaning toward KC Keeler’s team on Wednesday night. The Bearkats have turned over both their CUSA opponents this season while securing two touchdown wins against the Rice Owls and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. A win over the much-fancied Texas State Bobcats showed their legitimacy.
Behind JUCO transfer QB Hunter Watson and a variety of playmakers, the Bearkats boast a top-50 offense in college football. It’s been a remarkable turnaround from a unit that ranked 118th in the nation a year ago. Hunter has shown some passing ability, and Western Kentucky has averaged two passing touchdowns allowed to CUSA offenses this season.
However, the Bearkats succeed behind a run-heavy offense that leans on Watson’s dual-threat and Jevyon Ducker and DJ McKinney, playing into the Hilltoppers’ strengths. Remove the season-opening defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide, and the Western Kentuckty defense has given up just three rushing scores all season and allowed less than four yards per carry.
Led by star defensive back Upton Stout, 10 players have registered more than one tackle for loss as the team has swarmed opposition backfields. Furthermore, no CUSA team has allowed fewer red zone conversions, allowing a score on just 61.1% of opposition trips inside the 20.
While the Bearkats have been particularly impressive defensively for the most part this season, led by Caleb Weaver’s 38 tackles and three interceptions, the game against Texas State showcased some vulnerabilities in the Sam Houston pass defense that a quarterback of Caden Veltkamp’s caliber can exploit.
The Western Kentucky quarterback leads CUSA in completion percentage (69.6%) and touchdown passes (11) while averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt. With a plethora of wide receivers to target, not to mention pass-catching running back Elijah Young, the Hilltoppers might have just enough of an offensive advantage to sneak back to Bowling Green with an important win.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 28
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