The Big 12 is the hardest conference to predict this season because there are few, if any, elite teams. There are also few, if any, terrible teams, and four weeks into the season, there are seven or eight teams with a realistic chance to win the conference and earn the automatic College Football Playoff berth.
Before you decide to bet on the game, find out where we lean in this West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys prediction.
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Betting Preview
All West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oklahoma State -3.5 - Spread
Oklahoma State -4 - Moneyline
Oklahoma State -198, West Virginia +164 - Over/Under
65.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Ok. - Predicted Weather at Kick
89 degrees, sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned on this one, as both have the Cowboys as slight favorites. With a spread of 3.5 points and a total of 65.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 35-31 in favor of the Cowboys.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Both offenses have high-scoring potential but have been hot and cold this season. Meanwhile, the defenses can leave much to be desired.
The line opened with Oklahoma State nearly a touchdown favorite and has quickly fallen to its current position.
West Virginia’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter was originally a bit higher on the Mountaineers’ chances than Vegas. The betting public seemed to agree, driving the number down.
FPM has West Virginia as four-point underdogs, giving them a win probability of 39.4%. That represents the Mountaineers’ second-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, tied with next week’s game against Iowa State and behind an away game at Arizona.
The Mountaineers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Oklahoma State: 39.4%
- vs. Iowa State: 39.4%
- vs Kansas State: 47.2%
- at Arizona: 27%
- at Cincinnati: 54.3%
- vs Baylow: 66.4%
- vs UCF: 57.4%
- at Texas Tech: 49.2%
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oklahoma State has a 60.6% chance to win on Saturday. FPM likes the Cowboys in six of their remaining seven games but never by more than six points, meaning there are several games that could go either way.
Accordingly, Saturday’s clash with West Virginia is extremely important for OSU’s postseason hopes, especially after a two-game losing streak. The Cowboys’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. West Virginia: 60.6%
- at BYU: 35.4%
- at Baylor: 60.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 66.4%
- at TCU: 51.8%
- vs. Texas Tech: 63.4%
- at Colorado: 50.4%
Prediction for West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
From a college football fan’s perspective, Oklahoma State is infuriating to watch. The Cowboys boast one of the top running backs in the country and yet are 131st in rushing rate. It’s not like they’ve been good when they do run the ball, but it’s not like they’ve tried, either.
West Virginia’s defense has been atrocious this season, allowing 9.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.6 yards per rush. The Mountaineers have only been bailed out by a solid third-down defense, but things have the potential to get ugly for that unit.
The Mountaineers’ offense isn’t outstanding, but they face an Oklahoma State defense that has frankly been lucky this season. The Pokes are 128th in total defense but have 10 takeaways despite not having much of a pass rush, and opponents are struggling in the red zone. Their opponents have also missed 45% of their field goals against them.
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Both offenses should be able to move the ball, and West Virginia has been good enough to convert a few of those scoring opportunities that many of the Cowboys’ opponents have failed to capitialize on.
Expect a shootout and don’t be scared of a total in the 60s. While I expect some of Oklahoma State’s turnover luck to run out, the offense should have some room to run and throw. I’m taking the Cowboys straight up, but the Mountaineers cover in a thriller.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, West Virginia 35
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