West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Prediction: Back Brendan Sorsby to Win and Cover

    The Mountaineers and Bearcats have a history of one-sided matchups, but our West Virginia vs. Cincinnati prediction suggests this one might be a different story.

    After a 12-year break, the West Virginia Mountaineers and Cincinnati Bearcats clashed again in 2023, but it was far from a nail-biter. The Mountaineers cruised to a 42-21 victory, extending their dominant series lead to 17-3-1. Could 2024’s matchup tell a different story?

    Our West Virginia vs. Cincinnati prediction dives into the details, providing key betting insights to help you make smarter wagers.

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    West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Betting Preview

    All West Virginia vs. Cincinnati odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      West Virginia -1.5
    • Spread
      Cincinnati -4.5
    • Moneyline
      Cincinnati -185, West Virginia +154
    • Over/Under
      54.5 points
    • Game Time
      Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
    • Location
      Nippert Stadium | Cincinnati
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      58 degrees, 9 mph winds, mostly cloudy
    • How To Watch
      FS1

    The Bearcats have been a spread merchant this year, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six contests, but they’ve been far from successful against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cincinnati.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    While the total has gone over in five of WVU’s last seven, two trends point toward the under:

    • The under has hit in five of Cincinnati’s past seven games.
    • The under has hit in six of the last nine Cincinnati-West Virginia duels.

    West Virginia’s Winning Probability

    The Mountaineers were a dark horse to reach the Big 12 title game this year but are currently eighth in the conference standings. Still, a bowl game is well within reach, as WVU is favored by the FPM to win its next three contests.

    • at Cincinnati: 52.5%
    • vs. Baylor: 58.9%
    • vs. UCF: 73.0%
    • at Texas Tech: 36.9%

    Cincinnati’s Winning Probability

    Although the Bearcats own sub-50% win probabilities the rest of the way, the odds of losing out are slim. One more victory secures bowl eligibility for the first time under head coach Scott Satterfield.

    • vs. West Virginia: 47.5%
    • at Iowa State: 17.9%
    • at Kansas State: 20.4%
    • vs. TCU: 49.6%

    Prediction for West Virginia vs. Cincinnati

    With QB Garrett Greene listed as “doubtful,” per head coach Neal Brown, Nicco Marchiol is expected to make his second straight start. Marchiol impressed against the Arizona Wildcats, completing 18 of 22 passes for 181 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers.

    While Marchiol showed greater accuracy than Greene, it’s tough to draw definitive conclusions from one performance. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers shook things up defensively over the bye week, parting ways with their defensive coordinator and promoting longtime LBs coach Jeff Koonz to the interim role.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    With West Virginia ranking 83rd in total defense, 95th in scoring defense, and 80th in defensive success rate, the change might provide a spark. Still, there are too many uncertainties to confidently back the Mountaineers on the road—especially against a Cincinnati team in solid form.

    The Bearcats’ defense ranks 15th nationally in EPA per rush (WVU’s bread and butter), and their offense sits at 30th in EPA per dropback (a key Mountaineers’ vulnerability). This matchup doesn’t favor a floundering West Virginia squad.

    Take Cincinnati to win and cover.

    Prediction: Cincinnati 31, West Virginia 23

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