Two teams who had preseason Big 12 aspirations clash in the desert looking to salvage bowl eligibility and respectability as the West Virginia Mountaineers travel to Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday evening.
Our West Virginia vs. Arizona prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
West Virginia vs. Arizona Betting Preview
All West Virginia vs. Arizona odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona -2 - Spread
Arizona -3 - Moneyline
Arizona -155, West Virginia +130 - Over/Under
55 points - Game time
6 p.m. ET - Location
Arizona Stadium | Tucson, AZ - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How to Watch
FS1
As the phrase goes, “There’s a first time for everything,” and Neal Brown’s Mountaineers and Brent Brennan’s Wildcats collide for the first time in college football history. College football conference realignment has thrown these two teams together in the Big 12, and Arizona enters the game as a marginal favorite, according to the latest DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Wildcats haven’t actually fared too well when favored entering a game, losing to the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Colorado Buffaloes after their season-opening win over the New Mexico Lobos. West Virginia has one win as an underdog but has lost its last two games. Betting this one is for the true degenerates. Don’t be surprised if there’s a push on the spread.
West Virginia’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, West Virginia has a 47.2% chance of beating Arizona on Saturday evening. Being the road team gives the Mountaineers a little disadvantage in what is otherwise a potential pick ’em game. Our metric projected the four losses this season but also had West Virginia as a one-point underdog against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The remaining win probabilities for the Mountaineers’ 2024 season can be found right here:
- at Arizona: 47.2%
- at Cincinnati: 52.8%
- vs. Baylor: 65.7%
- vs. UCF: 74.6%
- at Texas Tech: 47.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, West Virginia would end the 2024 season with a 6-6 record, securing bowl eligibility for a second successive season. However, after a nine-win season in 2023 led to high preseason expectations, that would constitute a disappointing campaign for the Mountaineers.
Arizona’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives Arizona a 52.8% chance of beating the Mountaineers on Saturday evening. It’s worth noting that our metric has had higher expectations than the Wildcats have delivered this season, projecting wins against the Colorado Buffaloes and Texas Tech Raiders that they failed to achieve.
The remaining win probabilities for Arizona in the 2024 season are below:
- vs. West Virginia: 52.8%
- at UCF: 61.9%
- vs. Houston: 83%
- at TCU: 49.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 55.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Wildcats would end the 2024 season with a 7-5 record. After a 10-win season a year ago, it would be a disappointing downturn in fortunes, especially after retaining some key talent in the wake of coaching changes and a move across conferences.
Prediction for West Virginia vs. Arizona
If you’d told me before the season that these two teams would meet in Week 9 with a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game on the line, I would have 100% believed you. As it is, West Virginia and Arizona are both staring down the barrel of a lost campaign, with little but respectability and bowl eligibility still to play for as the season winds down toward its late November conclusion.
Can Arizona claw back another Big 12 win for their disappointing conference campaign, or will West Virginia creep above .500 by avoiding defeat in the desert? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
Much was expected from the Mountaineers’ offense this fall, with Garrett Greene garnering significant attention as a potential breakout quarterback and a nasty double-headed backfield featuring the dominant CJ Donaldson and talented young running back Jaheim White. After a run of putting up 30+ points in a game, that unit has stalled out in big defeats the last two weeks.
As a result, West Virginia ranks 70th in the nation with 28.4 points per game. Which looks electric compared to the situation in Arizona. Averaging just 23 points per game, the 100th-ranked scoring offense in the nation has looked lost outside of standout pass catcher Tetairoa McMillan. The run game has been virtually nonexistent, and Noah Fifita leads the Big 12 in interceptions.
The defenses haven’t been much better, but this is potentially where Arizona has the smallest of advantages. Once a beacon of light for the Mountaineers, the West Virginia pass defense has been suboptimal this season, allowing the second-most passing yards per game, snagging the fewest interceptions, and tying Texas Tech for most touchdowns allowed by any Big 12 program.
If ever there was an opportunity for the Fifita and McMillan partnership to flourish, it’s on Saturday evening. While Arizona has had its own injury-led defensive mishaps this year, if star playmakers Jacob Manu and Tacario Davis are anything close to full fitness then the Wildcats should have a strong enough run defense to shut down the West Virginia run game and grab a win.
Prediction: West Virginia 21, Arizona 24
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