The Big 12 is the hardest conference to predict this season because there are few, if any, elite teams. There are also few, if any, terrible teams, and four weeks into the season, there are seven or eight teams with a realistic chance to win the conference and earn the automatic College Football Playoff berth.
Before you decide to bet on the game, find out where we lean in this West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys prediction.
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Betting Preview
All West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oklahoma State -3.5 - Spread
Oklahoma State -3 - Moneyline
Oklahoma State -148, West Virginia +124 - Over/Under
64.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Ok. - Predicted Weather at Kick
89 degrees, sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned on this one, as both have the Cowboys as slight favorites. With a spread of 3.5 points and a total of 65.5, it’s implied that a final score close to 34-30 in favor of the Cowboys.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Both offenses have high-scoring potential but have been hot and cold this season. Meanwhile, the defenses can leave much to be desired.
The line opened with Oklahoma State nearly a touchdown favorite and has quickly fallen to its current position.
West Virginia’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter was originally a bit higher on the Mountaineers’ chances than Vegas. The betting public seemed to agree, driving the number down.
FPM has West Virginia as four-point underdogs, giving them a win probability of 39.4%. That represents the Mountaineers’ second-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, tied with next week’s game against Iowa State and behind an away game at Arizona.
The Mountaineers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Oklahoma State: 39.4%
- vs. Iowa State: 39.4%
- vs Kansas State: 47.2%
- at Arizona: 27.0%
- at Cincinnati: 54.3%
- vs Baylow: 66.4%
- vs UCF: 57.4%
- at Texas Tech: 49.2%
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oklahoma State has a 60.6% chance to win on Saturday. FPM likes the Cowboys in six of their remaining seven games but never by more than six points, meaning there are several games that could go either way.
Accordingly, Saturday’s clash with West Virginia is extremely important for OSU’s postseason hopes, especially after a two-game losing streak. The Cowboys’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. West Virginia: 60.6%
- at BYU: 35.4%
- at Baylor: 60.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 66.4%
- at TCU: 51.8%
- vs. Texas Tech: 63.6%
- at Colorado: 50.4%
Prediction for West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Watching Oklahoma State from a college football fan’s perspective can be downright maddening. Despite having one of the nation’s premier running backs, the Cowboys rank dead last in rushing rate at 131st. It’s not like they’ve been effective when they do run, but the bigger issue is they haven’t even given it a chance.
On the other hand, West Virginia’s defense has been a disaster, giving up 9.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.6 yards per carry. The only saving grace has been their decent third-down defense, but that unit is on the brink of implosion.
Offensively, West Virginia isn’t setting the world on fire, but they’re up against an Oklahoma State defense that’s been getting by on sheer luck. The Cowboys rank 128th in total defense, yet have somehow managed 10 takeaways without much of a pass rush, and opponents have struggled mightily in the red zone. Even more bizarre, opposing kickers have missed nearly half of their field goal attempts against them.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Both teams should be able to move the ball well, and West Virginia has shown enough competency to convert some of those chances that others have squandered against the Cowboys.
Expect a high-scoring affair, and don’t shy away from a total in the 60s. While I think some of Oklahoma State’s turnover luck runs out here, the offense should find space both on the ground and through the air. I’m picking the Cowboys to win outright, but West Virginia to cover in a nail-biter.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, West Virginia 35
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.