Two teams that started the season with Big 12 title ambitions now find themselves in the desert, each looking to reclaim bowl eligibility and a measure of respect. The West Virginia Mountaineers travel to Tucson for a Saturday evening clash against the Arizona Wildcats.
In our West Virginia vs. Arizona preview, we break down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
West Virginia vs. Arizona Betting Preview
All West Virginia vs. Arizona odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona -2 - Spread
Arizona -5.5 - Moneyline
Arizona -205, West Virginia +170 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Arizona Stadium | Tucson, AZ - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How to Watch
FS1
As the phrase goes, “There’s a first time for everything,” and Neal Brown’s Mountaineers and Brent Brennan’s Wildcats collide for the first time in college football history. College football conference realignment has thrown these two teams together in the Big 12, and Arizona enters the game as a marginal favorite, according to the latest DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Wildcats haven’t actually fared too well when favored entering a game, losing to the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Colorado Buffaloes after their season-opening win over the New Mexico Lobos. West Virginia has one win as an underdog but has lost its last two games. Betting this one is for the true degenerates. Don’t be surprised if there’s a push on the spread.
West Virginia’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, West Virginia has a 47.2% chance of beating Arizona on Saturday evening. Being the road team gives the Mountaineers a little disadvantage in what is otherwise a potential pick ’em game. Our metric projected the four losses this season but also had West Virginia as a one-point underdog against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
- at Arizona: 47.2%
- at Cincinnati: 52.8%
- vs. Baylor: 65.7%
- vs. UCF: 74.6%
- at Texas Tech: 47.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, West Virginia would end the 2024 season with a 6-6 record, securing bowl eligibility for a second successive season. However, after a nine-win season in 2023 led to high preseason expectations, that would constitute a disappointing campaign for the Mountaineers.
Arizona’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives Arizona a 52.8% chance of beating the Mountaineers on Saturday evening. It’s worth noting that our metric has had higher expectations than the Wildcats have delivered this season, projecting wins against the Colorado Buffaloes and Texas Tech Raiders that they failed to achieve.
- vs. West Virginia: 52.8%
- at UCF: 61.9%
- vs. Houston: 83%
- at TCU: 49.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 55.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Wildcats would end the 2024 season with a 7-5 record. After a 10-win season a year ago, it would be a disappointing downturn in fortunes, especially after retaining some key talent in the wake of coaching changes and a move across conferences.
Prediction for West Virginia vs. Arizona
If you’d told me before the season that Week 9 would feature these two teams battling for a spot in the Big 12 Championship, I’d have believed you instantly. Yet here we are—with West Virginia and Arizona staring down the prospect of a disappointing season, now left fighting for pride and bowl eligibility as the season edges toward late November.
Will Arizona secure another Big 12 win in their underwhelming conference campaign, or can West Virginia climb above .500 with a victory in the desert? Who has the edge, and where will the game’s pivotal matchups unfold?
High hopes surrounded the Mountaineers’ offense this fall. Garrett Greene was hyped as a breakout quarterback candidate, with a dynamic backfield featuring the powerful CJ Donaldson and rising talent Jaheim White.
MORE: Latest Garrett Greene Injury Update
After a run of 30+ point performances, the offense has now hit a wall, leading to tough losses in the past two weeks. Currently ranked 70th nationally with an average of 28.4 points per game, they still outshine Arizona’s offense, which sits at 100th with a modest 23 points per game.
Outside of standout receiver Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona has struggled to find offensive rhythm, with a nearly nonexistent run game and Noah Fifita topping the Big 12 in interceptions.
Defensively, both teams have struggled, though Arizona might hold a slight edge with Greene likely out. West Virginia’s pass defense, once the pride of the team, has stumbled, allowing the second-most passing yards per game, recording the fewest interceptions, and tying Texas Tech for the most passing touchdowns allowed in the Big 12.
If there’s a game for the Fifita-McMillan connection to shine, it’s Saturday evening. While Arizona’s defense has dealt with injuries, if key players like Jacob Manu and Tacario Davis are close to full strength, the Wildcats could have a solid enough run defense to stymie West Virginia’s ground game and come away with a win.
Prediction: West Virginia 21, Arizona 24
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