On Senior Day, the top-ranked Oregon Ducks will close out their regular season against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium this Saturday. Dan Lanning and the Ducks hold an active 14-game home win streak that started in Nov. 2022.
The Ducks, an unblemished 11-0 record, survived a nail-biter against Wisconsin their last time out, rallying with 10 fourth-quarter points to secure a 16-13 victory and preserve their perfect season. Meanwhile, now 6-5, Washington locked up bowl eligibility with a 31-19 win over UCLA. However, the road has been unkind to the Huskies this season. They’re winless in four road games and have yet to cover a spread away from home.
As 19.5-point underdogs, Washington faces a tall task against an Oregon team determined to cement its playoff standing.
Washington vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Washington vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -20 - Spread
Oregon -19.5 - Moneyline
Washington +800, Oregon -900 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 30, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium | Eugene, Ore. - Predicted Weather at Kick
45 degrees, clear, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
A lot has changed this season compared to the last few Border War matchups, including the spread. Oregon opened as a massive 19.5-point favorite over its rivals. That number briefly came down to -19 and then -18.5 but quickly returned to -19.5.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total has seen a massive drop, much larger than typically seen this early in the week. It opened at 62.5 and has consistently dropped off the table to 50.5, where it currently sits. It has only fallen and hasn’t experienced any spikes, so it’s expected the total will close near 50.5.
Washington’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Huskies have a 6.6% chance of defeating the Ducks on Saturday.
If the win probability holds, Washington will finish 2024 with a 6-6 regular season record. That’s a significant drop in Jedd Fisch’s first year at the helm compared to the 25 total games Washington won in two seasons under Kalen DeBoer. The Huskies did lose quite a bit of talent, and many have faith in Fisch’s ability to rebuild the Husky program into a perennial contender in the Big Ten.
- at Oregon 6.6%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Oregon has a 93.4% chance of defeating Washington in the Border War on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Ducks would finish as the only unbeaten team in the 2024 regular season and lock up the No. 1 overall seed for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Lanning already has his third consecutive double-digit win season for the Ducks.
- vs. Washington: 93.4%
Prediction for Washington vs. Oregon
On Saturday, Washington faces a monumental challenge. They step into Autzen Stadium as massive underdogs — a position they haven’t covered since 2006, going 0-7-1 ATS when facing a 20-point spread or more. Their season has been defined by gritty defense, ranking sixth nationally in passing yards allowed (166 per game) and 17th in total defense (318 yards per game).
But the cracks are beginning to show. Over their last three games, the Huskies have surrendered an average of 260 passing yards and 421 total yards, signs of a defense that may be wearing thin. And this Oregon offense is not who they want to see.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
For top-ranked Oregon, the mission is clear: win, stay healthy, and set their sights on the Big Ten Football Championship Game. Dillon Gabriel, once a Heisman hopeful, took a step back in last week’s 16-13 win over Wisconsin, failing to throw a touchdown for the first time all season.
Gabriel’s 28 total touchdowns remain a testament to his leadership. Complemented by Jordan James’ 1,067 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, Oregon boasts an arsenal of offensive weapons that few teams can contain.
With playoff aspirations in sight, Lanning’s Ducks will look to close out a historic undefeated regular season in dominant fashion. This is their moment to make a statement, and they’re unlikely to take their foot off the gas. Some are calling for them to take it easy on Saturday; I don’t think a Lanning-coached squad is capable of that.
Prediction: Oregon 38, Washington 13
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.