Washington has encountered two consecutive teams with similar offensive styles, losing to Rutgers but rebounding with a win over Michigan. Now, the Huskies hit the road to take on another team in that mold, the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Will the Huskies notch their second straight victory, or can the Hawkeyes learn from Michigan’s mistakes and bounce back? Here’s where we’re leaning in our Washington vs. Iowa prediction.
Washington vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Washington vs. Iowa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -3 - Spread
Iowa -2.5 - Moneyline
Iowa -142, Washington +120 - Over/Under
41.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, Noon ET - Location
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are closely aligned on this one, both favoring the Hawkeyes by about a field goal. Originally, the Vegas line was Iowa -2.5, having moved up a half-point to reach CFN’s total at Iowa -3, right on the nose, and settling back at -2.5 on Saturday morning.
Vegas and CFN expect this to be an old-school Big Ten rock fight, implying a final score close to 22-19, Iowa.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There hasn’t been a lot of line movement here. The spread ranges from Iowa -2.5 to -3.5, and the total is between 40.5 and 42.5 everywhere I’ve looked.
Washington’s Winning Probability
Washington has a 42.6% chance to win on Saturday. The Huskies don’t have many games left as a favorite, so they’ll need to steal one to make a bowl.
- at Iowa: 42.6%
- at Indiana:26.2%
- vs. USC: 36.9%
- at Penn State: 12.8%
- at Oregon: 10.2%
- vs. UCLA: 80.6%
Iowa’s Winning Probability
FPM has the Hawkeyes as three-point favorites, giving them a win probability of 57.4%. They have several toss-up games remaining, and if a few go their direction, we could be talking about another 10-2 Iowa team. On the other hand, if the Hawkeyes lose a few, they could end up worse than most Iowa teams in recent memory.
- vs. Washington: 57.4%
- at Michigan State: 61.1%
- vs. Northwestern: 85.9%
- vs. Wisconsin: 53.4%
- at UCLA: 79.3%
- at Maryland: 61.1%
- vs. Nebraska: 52.8%
Prediction for Washington vs. Iowa
Aerosmith has a lyric: “It’s the same old story, same old song and dance.” That could be the theme song for Iowa football.
The Hawkeyes looked strong, putting up 40 points on an FCS team and 38 against a struggling Troy squad. They even managed 31 points and 334 yards against Minnesota. But when it came to the toughest teams on their schedule, Iowa fell back into their old habits, averaging just 265 yards and 13 points in matchups with Iowa State and Ohio State.
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Sure, those are quality defenses, but Iowa still hasn’t cracked 100 passing yards against a Power Four opponent. Fortunately, they’ve got a more favorable stretch coming up in the back half of the season.
But if they drop this game to Washington, Kirk Ferentz might find his seat getting a lot warmer.
Washington just beat a Michigan team that’s similarly challenged in the passing game. The difference? Iowa’s defense is a bit more formidable than Michigan’s.
Meanwhile, Washington’s defense has quietly been one of the most consistent in the country, holding all six opponents under 25 points. Granted, they haven’t faced an elite offense yet—and that won’t change this Saturday.
Still, let’s go back to that Aerosmith lyric. For Iowa, the same old story is an offense that makes headlines for all the wrong reasons and a defense that grinds out ugly, low-scoring battles late in the season.
Iowa’s defense is tougher than both Rutgers and Michigan, and say what you will about the offense, but at least the Hawkeyes don’t turn the ball over much. Their front seven should be able to contain Jonah Coleman while Kaleb Johnson and the ground game do just enough to eke out a win.
At least they should. If not, you might want to fire up that hot seat for Ferentz.
Prediction: Iowa 23, Washington 16
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