Despite a slip-up against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, the Miami Hurricanes remain in control of their path to the ACC title and the College Football Playoff. The formula is straightforward: win out.
However, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons would love nothing more than to derail Miami’s season. Could Dave Clawson’s team deliver the upset that shakes up the ACC Championship race? Here’s our take in this Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL) prediction.
Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL) Betting Preview
All Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -19.5 - Spread
Miami -24 - Moneyline
Miami -2400, Wake Forest +1200 - Over/Under
66.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 23, Noon ET - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
While the Hurricanes fell in the College Football Playoff rankings last week following their loss to Georgia Tech, there’s still a clear path to the postseason. There’s just no room for error anymore. The Vegas spread here implies the Hurricanes should be safe from upset, but we’ve seen weirder results.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 66.5 points and a spread of 24 points, the sportsbooks expect Cam Ward and the Miami offense to put up huge numbers, implying a score close to 45-21 in favor of the Hurricanes.
Wake Forest’s Winning Probability
While CFN’s FPM isn’t quite as low on the Demon Deacons’ chances in this one as Vegas is, it still has them as 24-point underdogs. The metric gives them a 7.1% chance to win. While bowl eligibility is mathematically possible, the Demon Deacons should be moderate underdogs in the season finale as well.
- at Miami-FL: 7.1%
- vs. Duke: 32.3%
Miami’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Miami has a 92.9% chance of beating Wake Forest at home. According to our metric, the Hurricanes will be moderate favorites next week against the Syracuse Orange.
If Miami wins out, they will appear in the ACC Championship Game, most likely against the SMU Mustangs. Our metric gives them just over a 65% chance of winning out.
- vs. Wake Forest: 92.9%
- at Syracuse: 70.3%
Prediction for Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL)
With all due respect to Clawson and the Demon Deacons, this game is about the Hurricanes stepping up when it matters most. If Mario Cristobal has his team locked in and ready to play, Miami should win its final two games, setting the stage for a “win-and-in” scenario in the ACC Championship—with an automatic College Football Playoff berth on the line.
For Miami, the formula is simple: give Cam Ward enough help so he doesn’t have to play hero every week. Four of their six ACC games have been nail-biters decided by one score, and another (against Duke) required a multi-score second-half comeback.
Last week, Miami’s luck ran out. But luck won’t be necessary if they perform up to their potential—especially on defense. Their talent alone should be enough to dominate these last two games and cruise to blowout victories.
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That said, don’t underestimate Wake Forest’s ability to put up points, especially if Hank Bachmeier is back at full strength. Bachmeier was pulled early in the second half against North Carolina last week, reportedly healthy but held out due to a quarterback-heavy run game plan.
When healthy, Bachmeier has kept the Demon Deacons’ offense humming, so scoring hasn’t been their problem. And while Miami has the talent to overwhelm on paper, their defense has been a liability—not just for a playoff contender, but by FBS standards overall.
Even middle-tier ACC offenses like Duke have put up season-best performances against the Hurricanes. This doesn’t bode well for Miami’s potential playoff aspirations, but it also means no matchup—however favorable—is a guaranteed win.
Cam Ward remains Cam Ward, and in any other year, he’d probably be a shoo-in for the Heisman. Wake Forest’s defense, however, doesn’t match up well against Miami’s skill players and likely won’t be able to rattle Ward enough to disrupt his game.
That said, I’m not convinced Miami’s defense can hold Wake Forest under control to cover a 24-point spread. Miami has kept only one ACC opponent (Florida State) under 28 points this season. If Wake Forest hits that number, the Hurricanes would need 53 points to cover—and that seems unlikely.
Miami should score enough to win, Wake Forest should score enough to cover, and together, they’ll probably push this game over the total.
Prediction: Miami 42, Wake Forest 27
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