Not only are the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4-0 all-time against the Virginia Cavaliers, but they cruised to a 28-3 victory in their 2021 meeting. Entering Week 12 as over three-touchdown underdogs, do the Cavaliers have enough talent to at least cover the spread?
Our Virginia vs. Notre Dame prediction breaks down the matchup, offering essential betting insights to guide your wagers.
Virginia vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview
All Virginia vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -14.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -23 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -2100, Virginia +1100 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Notre Dame Stadium | Notre Dame, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, 10 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
NBC
In terms of betting trends, there’s value on both sides here. Virginia is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games and 7-0-1 in its last eight on the road. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in its previous five contests this season.
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Total trends are similarly contrasting, with the under hitting in four of the Cavaliers’ past five bouts but the over cashing in four of the Fighting Irish’s past five.
Virginia’s Winning Probability
UVA is one win away from bowling for the first time since 2019, but getting that last win won’t be easy. The FPM gives the Cavaliers a win probability under 40% in each of their final three games.
- at Notre Dame: 14.1%
- vs. SMU: 27.0%
- at Virginia Tech: 38.1%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
Outside of a frankly embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois early in the year, the Fighting Irish have been dominant this season, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t maintain form until the College Football Playoff. They hold win probabilities of over 70% in their three contests to end the regular season.
- vs. Virginia: 85.9%
- vs. Army: 80.6%
- at USC: 73.4%
Prediction for Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is coming off a 52-3 victory over the Florida State Seminoles, while Virginia needed every bit of its potential to knock off the Pittsburgh Panthers 24-19. Can the Cavaliers get up for another upset (at least ATS) in back-to-back weeks? My money’s on “No.”
The Irish are a run-first team — and a good one at that:
- 214.8 rushing yards per game, 12th
- 5.98 rushing yards per attempt, 4th
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Assuming they have their way with Virginia’s middle-of-the-pack run defense, which they should, then the Cavaliers will need to throw the ball to keep up. That’s exactly what Notre Dame wants.
Virginia has allowed the sixth most sacks per game (3.44), while ND is tied for the 18th most sacks generated (2.89). Additionally, the Irish are No. 1 in defensive dropback success rate and No. 3 in EPA per dropback.
Notre Dame to win and cover is a relatively easy play, but the total could be safer. The Irish have scored 49+ in three of their last four games, including 52 on the then-ranked Navy Midshipmen a couple of games ago.
Prediction: Notre Dame 44, Virginia 17
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