When fans saw the Vanderbilt Commodores heading to Baton Rouge to face the LSU Tigers, few expected the betting line to be this tight. Vanderbilt has strung together an impressive season, while Brian Kelly’s Tigers have faced a rough patch, with losses piling up and plenty of postgame frustrations.
Despite being favored, a loss to Vanderbilt could send the Tigers’ faithful into an uproar—and the odds suggest it’s a real possibility. Will the Commodores pull off the upset? Dive into our Vanderbilt vs. LSU prediction to find out.
Vanderbilt vs. LSU Betting Preview
All Vanderbilt vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -6 - Spread
LSU -7.5 - Moneyline
LSU -285, Vanderbilt +230 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, La. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Each of these teams seems to be sputtering out at the wrong time. While Vanderbilt has lost two of three, LSU has dropped three in a row, and both offenses are running on fumes. One will have to get back on track on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While a 7.5-point spread seemed crazy three months ago, it’s actually dropped from nine this week. The total has also ticked down to 53.5 after starting at 54.5 points. As of now, the spread and total imply a game close to 31-23 in favor of the Tigers.
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is closely aligned with Vegas, making the Commodores moderate road underdogs. Vanderbilt has a 34.3% chance to win the game, per the metric. It’ll end with a tough game against the Tennessee Volunteers, but the metric gives it a 55% chance to win one of its two remaining games and get to seven wins.
- at LSU: 34.3%
- vs. Tennessee: 31.2%
LSU’s Winning Probability
LSU wanted to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff, but both of those goals have been shattered. Now, the Tigers will look to simply finish the year with some momentum. The Tigers have two very winnable games to end the season, with a 65.7% chance to beat Vanderbilt on Saturday.
- vs. Vanderbilt: 65.7%
- vs. Oklahoma: 74.9%
Prediction for Vanderbilt vs. LSU
While both teams share the same record, they’re heading in drastically different directions—and one team is clearly feeling worse about it.
LSU has now dropped three straight to fall to 6-4, and honestly, it could be even worse. Two razor-thin wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss earlier this season easily could (and arguably should) have gone the other way.
I have serious concerns about LSU’s ability to finish this season strong. As the kids say, the vibes are off.
These games might feel meaningless after falling short of preseason expectations, but they’re critical for the Tigers to regain momentum heading into National Signing Day. If LSU doesn’t finish on a high note, it could jeopardize what’s shaping up to be their best recruiting class of the decade.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt comes off a much-needed bye week after getting manhandled by South Carolina. The Commodores’ record still looks solid, but they’re limping toward the finish line.
Both teams are dealing with similar offensive struggles, albeit for different reasons. Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier have both elevated their teams at times this season, but recent weeks have exposed some cracks.
For Pavia, it’s a question of durability. Known for taking big hits, the wear and tear of an SEC season is starting to show. While there’s no clear injury, he absorbed one of the hardest hits of the year against South Carolina, and he hasn’t quite looked the same since.
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For Nussmeier, the problem is more about decision-making. He’s been flirting with disaster all year by releasing passes just before taking sacks, but the pressure is catching up to him. Over the past three weeks, he’s taken 11 of his 12 sacks and thrown nine of his 16 interceptable passes. What was once a strength has now become a liability for LSU’s offense in November.
The result? Both offenses have gone ice-cold. Vanderbilt is averaging just 18.4 points per game since their win over Alabama, while LSU has managed a paltry 17.3 in its last three outings. The team that can rediscover its early-season form will likely come out on top.
I think Vanderbilt’s issues are more about the grind of an SEC schedule than a fundamental drop-off in ability. LSU, however, feels like a team that’s been figured out. Defenses seem to have Nussmeier and the Tigers’ offense dialed in, and there’s an elephant in the room: Will LSU play hard the rest of the way? The relationship between Brian Kelly and his players—and the fans—feels strained at best.
I like Pavia’s ability to make plays and think Vanderbilt’s ground game can exploit LSU’s defense. That might be just enough for the Commodores to pull off the upset. If it happens, don’t be surprised if you see a “Five Candidates to Replace Brian Kelly” article on College Football Network in the coming weeks.
This game is a litmus test for both programs. If Vanderbilt’s defense can stifle the Tigers, it could be a long offseason in Baton Rouge.
No matter who wins, I’m leaning hard on the under—it’s one of the better values this week. That said, I think Pavia’s fresh legs make the difference, and Vanderbilt pulls off the outright upset.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 27, LSU 24
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