If preseason expectations were to be believed, the Utah Utes and UCF Knights would be meeting on Friday for a shot at playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Yet, after two difficult campaigns, there is nothing at stake other than the potential futures of head coaches Kyle Whittingham and Gus Malzahn.
Who will prevail? Our Utah vs. UCF prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final hurdle of a disappointing 2024 college football season.
Utah vs. UCF Betting Preview
All Utah vs. UCF odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UCF -2 - Spread
UCF -9.5 - Moneyline
UCF -325, Utah +260 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET - Location
FBC Mortgage Stadium | Orlando, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, clear, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Friday night marks the first-ever matchup between the Utes and Knights. Unsurprisingly, two teams at opposite ends of the country have managed to avoid each other up until now. However, with the former Pac-12 powerhouse transitioning to the Big 12, the Utes will now face the former AAC outfit twice in the next four years.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Utah enters the game as a significant underdog, according to DraftKings, although our metric forecasts a much closer game. The Utes are on a seven-game losing streak and have been unable to win a single game as an underdog this year. UCF has hardly been prolific as a favorite, going 3-6 in that situation, and that latter stat could be a pointer to what we’ll see in Week 14.
Utah’s Winning Probability
Utah started the season 4-0, but quarterback issues plagued the Utes once they got into conference play, and they’ve lost seven straight games, five by one score. They’ll have just a 47.2% chance to get back in the win column on Friday, per CFN’s FPM.
- at UCF: 47.2%
UCF’s Winning Probability
Similarly, the Knights have spiraled after starting 3-0, with only a blowout win over Arizona right in the middle of the season to stop the losing streak. Sitting at 4-7, the Knights have little to play for on Friday outside of positive momentum heading into the offseason. The FPM gives them a 52.8% chance to win.
- vs. Utah: 52.8%
Prediction for Utah vs. UCF
Both Utah and UCF show the importance of the quarterback position. The teams have started six different quarterbacks between them this year, and the results have been predictably poor.
For UCF, KJ Jefferson just wasn’t what the coaching staff had hoped, and the passing game was awful once conference play started. The eventual move to third-stringer Dylan Rizk has somewhat stabilized the passing attack at the expense of what was one of the Big 12’s best running games.
On Utah’s side of things, injuries have sucked the life out of the team. Cam Rising once again went down with an injury, forcing true freshman Isaac Wilson into action, probably before he was ready.
Utah found a bit of momentum against the BYU Cougars with Brandon Rose as a dual-threat option, but he too went down with an injury and forced Wilson back into action.
The Utes have only eclipsed 200 yards passing twice since the beginning of October, ironically in their two worst losses of that span.
On the flip side, UCF is scoring again but struggles to stop any offense with a pulse, rendering its own offensive success moot.
In a matchup of struggling teams, I lean toward the team with the proven defense. UCF is struggling to slow most offenses, and if Utah can find anything offensively, I think the Utes will win outright.
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That’s a big “If” though, as the offense has failed to reach 25 points in eight straight games (a defensive score contributed to their final score of 28 last week).
There’s a bit of luck involved in winning close games, and I think the Utes are due.
If Utah wins, it will kick off an interesting offseason for both teams. UCF might not have much more patience for Gus Malzahn, and there have been rumors that Kyle Whittingham is nearing retirement.
Could this be a “win one for the Gipper” situation for the Utes? And if they lose, are the Knights in the market for a new head coach?
The cynic in me is curious to know the answers to both questions, and I like Utah here, straight up, in an ugly, “ball control and defense” type of game.
Prediction: Utah 27, UCF 24
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