The Colorado State Rams are perhaps the surprise of the entire Mountain West Conference in 2024. Even while in the middle of a five-game winning streak, the Rams never really got much love from the media. But as recently as last week, the Rams controlled their own destiny to a Mountain West Championship.
Now, that dream seems a bit far-fetched but still mathematically alive. But first, Colorado State needs to take care of business at home against the 4-7 Utah State Aggies. Find out all the betting info, including which way we lean on the spread and total in this Utah State vs. Colorado State prediction.
Utah State vs. Colorado State Betting Preview
All Utah State vs. Colorado State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Colorado State -8 - Spread
Colorado State -6 - Moneyline
Colorado State -225, Utah State +185 - Over/Under
59 points - Game Time
Friday, Nov. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Canvas Stadium | Fort Collins, Colo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
44 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
Utah State has shown a surprising amount of late-season fight for a team that lost its head coach just weeks before the season and started 1-6. The Aggies have won three of four and clash with the 7-4 Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins on Friday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Colorado State is a moderate home favorite of six points, but the total of 59 points probably says more about the visitors. The Aggies have struggled defensively this season but have had little trouble racking up points on offense. The spread and total imply a final score close to 33-27, in favor of the Rams.
Utah State’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is close to the Vegas line, making the Aggies eight-point underdogs. That translates to a winning percentage of 26.6%. While the Aggies don’t have anything tangible to play for, the momentum would be helpful as the team heads into the offseason.
- at Colorado State: 26.6%
Colorado State’s Winning Probability
Colorado State has a 73.4% chance to win, per FPM. If the Rams win and the UNLV Rebels lose to the Nevada Wolf Pack, the Rams will make the Mountain West Championship game. The Rebels are overwhelming favorites, with a 93.1% chance to beat Nevada, so Colorado State’s chances of making the conference title game are slim, just 5.06%.
- vs. Utah State: 73.4%
Prediction for Utah State vs. Colorado State
The key storyline in this one revolves around a resurgent Aggies defense. Plainly stated, Utah State’s defense was abysmal through the season’s first nine games. In that time frame, Utah State gave up at least 38 points in seven of its first eight FBS games, including a streak of six straight to start the year.
That also included a streak of four games in which the Aggies gave up an average of 51.75 points per game.
But things changed recently. In Utah State’s three wins over the last month, the defense has given up a total of 55 points. If that defense shows up on Saturday, the Rams could be in trouble.
While Colorado State had a strong start to conference play, at least some of it could be chalked up to the schedule. The Rams have beaten just one bowl-eligible team this season and have only averaged 20.4 points per game against FBS opponents.
Still, Jay Norvell’s team has played well enough to win most of its games by multiple scores. There’s nothing gaudy about the numbers, but the Rams are outplaying most of their opponents.
If Utah State’s defensive resurgence is real, the Aggies have a chance to pull off the upset and end the year with a winning record in conference action, a true accomplishment given the circumstances. But the defense has to keep up its impressive play, and the issue is that I don’t think that will happen, especially against a team that runs the ball effectively.
The Aggies have benefitted not from pressure or consistently excellent defensive play but rather from opponents’ penalties and stalled offensive possessions.
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The San Diego State Aztecs, for example, turned the ball over on downs and punted twice from Aggie territory last week. The week before that, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors committed 12 penalties and threw five interceptions. Yes, the Aggies dominated that game, but they also benefitted from terrible offensive play from a bottom-10 FBS offense.
Because of this, I really like the Rams to not only win but cover as well. As long as Avery Morrow continues his strong season, the Rams should be able to move the ball effectively against the Aggie defense.
I think that unit has certainly improved but not enough to win when its own offense may struggle. The total is dropping, so I’d get in while you can, as I really like this to end up with a lower score than the oddsmakers suggest.
Prediction: Colorado State 31, Utah State 23
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