The Utes and Sun Devils have faced off 34 times, with the latter owning a 22-12 all-time lead. Yet, Kyle Whittingham’s squad has won the first four by at least 14 points.
Here’s a look at the latest odds, spread analysis, and our Utah vs. Arizona State prediction as these teams prepare for a Friday night Pac-12 — I mean, Big 12 — showdown.
Utah vs. Arizona State Betting Preview
All Utah vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Utah -3.5 - Spread
Utah -5.5 - Moneyline
Utah -218, Arizona State +180 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
10:30 ET, Friday, Oct. 11 - Location
Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
87 degrees, 4 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
While the Utes are 4-1 straight up on the year, they’ve struggled against the spread. Dating back to last season, they’re 1-7 ATS vs. FBS competition, covering as a 1.5-point road favorite at Oklahoma State.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
On the other side of the field, the Sun Devils, picked last in the Big 12 preseason poll, have exceeded expectations in Year 2 under head coach Kenny Dillingham. His team is 4-1 overall and ATS, going unbeaten at home.
In terms of the total, the under has gone 3-1 in Utah’s four games against FBS programs, but the over is 3-2 in Arizona State’s five contests thus far.
Utah’s Winning Probability
Utah was the favorite to take the Big 12 — before Rising’s injury, of course. Still, they are still favored to run the gauntlet down the stretch, beginning with a 60.6% win probability against Arizona State.
Here are the Utes’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. TCU: 73.0%
- at Houston: 88.3%
- vs. BYU: 50.4%
- at Colorado: 65.7%
- vs. Iowa State: 52.5%
- at UCF: 70.3%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
That means ASU’s probability is at 39.4% for Week 7. But fret not, Sun Devils fans, as your program’s next three contests feature a rate 10% higher! That is before dropping to 41.1% or lower in the final three games, but you can worry about it later.
Here are the Sun Devils’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Cincinnati: 53.4%
- at Oklahoma State: 48.8%
- vs. UCF: 51.8%
- at Kansas State: 37.4%
- vs. BYU: 41.1%
- at Arizona: 35.9%
Prediction for Utah vs. Arizona State
Are the Sun Devils legitimate? It’s a fair question to ask, as three of their four wins have come by one score, and the toughest defense they have faced was … Kansas? Texas Tech?
That dampens their 19th-in-the-nation offensive success rate and 44.9% third-down conversion rate, but they can only play the teams across from them.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Arizona State has been far less disciplined than Utah this year, committing 37 penalties to the Utes’ 21. History also isn’t on their side, as they’ve dropped the last four games to Utah, including a 55-3 defeat in Salt Lake City last season.
Now, I’ve buried the lede here: much of the Utah vs. Arizona State prediction hinges on whether or not QB Cam Rising will suit up. In his early week media availability, Whittingham said, “There’s a chance” Rising will play at ASU.
The veteran signal-caller injured his hand (dislocated finger/deep laceration) in Utah’s second game of the season, and despite being called a “game-time decision” over the last few weeks, true freshman Isaac Wilson — Zach Wilson’s brother — has started each game.
Although he’s been serviceable under center, it all came to a head against Arizona last week, resulting in a 23-10 loss. However, the Utes’ defense, which ranks 16th in YPG (280.2) and 15th in PPG (15.0) allowed, should be able to hold the Sun Devils under 22 points for the first time this season.
Utah to cover and win straight up are the lean, but if the questions surrounding Rising make you squeamish, the under is a solid play.
Prediction: Utah 23, Arizona State 13
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