The Hawaii Bowl is historically one of the more exciting bowl matchups of the year and this season’s game could be the best of the entire month.
The USF Bulls and San Jose State Spartans are known for their offensive prowess and individual talent. If the offensive starters are a go, this could turn out to be a true shootout. Find out who we think wins in this USF vs. San Jose State prediction.
USF vs. San Jose State Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview
All USF vs. San Jose State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USF -5.5 - Spread
San Jose State -5 - Moneyline
San Jose State -198, USF +164 - Over/Under
62 points - Game Time
Tuesday, Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex | Honolulu - How To Watch
ESPN
San Jose State started as 2.5-point favorites and the line moved further in the Spartans’ favor as more South Florida players entered the transfer portal. The Bulls’ chances likely hinge on the health of starting quarterback Byrum Brown, who has been out for a few months. The Spartans have lost a few defensive backs to the transfer portal as well, so if the Bulls can exploit that, they have a strong chance to pull off the upset.
If San Jose State superstar Nick Nash plays, this could be a true shootout, as evidenced by the total of 62 points.
USF’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Bulls, making them five-point favorites. That translates to a winning probability of 64.6%.
There have been rumors that a few defensive starters could enter the transfer portal. If that happens, this percentage could go down.
- vs. San Jose State: 64.6%
San Jose State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Spartans are slight underdogs, with a winning probability of 35.4%. San Jose State retains the majority of its electric passing attack and the Spartans likely have a better chance of winning than this number suggests.
- vs. USF: 35.4%
Prediction for USF vs. San Jose State
This entire preview would be a failure if I didn’t mention San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s homecoming. Niumatalolo is one of the greatest quarterbacks in Hawaii high school football history, leaving Radford High School in Honolulu in 1985 and starting at quarterback with the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors from 1987 to 1989 in Paul Johnson’s option offense. He led the Rainbow Warriors to their first bowl game in 1989.
Something tells me Niumatalolo will throw it a bit more in his return to the Aloha State.
The story here is the Spartans’ fourth-ranked passing offense against South Florida’s 133rd-ranked passing defense. The Bulls are missing starting safety Tawfiq Byard from that already porous secondary, and the early indication is that Nash intends to play.
If so, take the over.
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The South Florida offense has also been strong down the stretch as backup quarterback Bryce Archie has gotten more comfortable. That’s probably due to the schedule, though.
The offense is electric against bad teams, averaging 50 points a game against the five teams it played that are below 110th in SP+.
It tends to disappear against quality teams, however. In five games against teams that were ranked at any point this season, the Bulls averaged 10.2 points, reaching 15 only in garbage time against both the Alabama Crimson Tide and Miami Hurricanes.
There’s an argument to be made that San Jose State is the first decent team the Bulls have faced all season. The Spartans don’t have a defense as good as the Tulane Green Wave or Memphis Tigers, but they don’t have one nearly as poor as the Charlotte 49ers or Southern Miss Golden Eagles.
I believe the real South Florida offense is somewhere in between the two extremes but closer to the one that struggled against the Navy Midshipmen than the team that routed the Florida Atlantic Owls.
Even if the Bulls do succeed offensively, I’d be shocked if they held the Spartans under 500 yards.
Take Nash’s overs and the over for the game as well in a comfortable San Jose State win.
Prediction: San Jose State 42, USF 23
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