Perhaps no Group of Five school has had a more disappointing run this season than the USF Bulls. Picked by some as a trendy College Football Playoff contender, the Bulls have been anything but competitive.
But an easier home stretch has the Bulls within reach of bowl eligibility, given they can play close to their preseason expectations. Standing in their way Friday are the Florida Atlantic Owls, a team whose faint bowl hopes would be all but squashed with a loss. Find out which team we think emerges victorious in our USF vs. Florida Atlantic prediction.
USF vs. Florida Atlantic Betting Preview
All USF vs. Florida Atlantic odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USF -6.5 - Spread
USF -2.5 - Moneyline
USF -135, Florida Atlantic +114 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 1, 7:30 ET - Location
FAU Stadium | Boca Raton, Florida - Predicted Weather at Kick
77 degrees, clear, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
If you asked each team’s respective coaching staff, they’d tell you their group of guys has underperformed this year. While Florida Atlantic didn’t have a realistic chance to win the conference, 2-5 is quite the underwhelming start. Still, that staff might not feel as bad as Alex Golesh’s squad, who thought double-digit wins could be a possibility and yet sit at 3-4.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The line is indicative of that, as the Bulls are only 2.5-point road favorites. A 52.5-point total means that Vegas expects a game close to 27-25 in favor of USF.
USF’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit higher on the Bulls in this one than Vegas. USF is a slightly bigger favorite (6.5 points), with a win probability of 67.7%, per the metric. The metric has the Bulls favorites in their last three after a toss-up next week.
- at Florida Atlantic: 67.7%
- vs. Navy: 50.4%
- at Charlotte: 65.1%
- vs. Tulsa: 75.3%
- at Rice: 67.7%
Florida Atlantic’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Florida Atlantic a 32.3% chance to win and has the Owls in tight contests the rest of the way, with winning probabilities between 46 and 59% in their remaining four games after this week. While bowl eligibility isn’t a complete impossibility, it is statistically improbable.
- vs. USF: 32.3%
- at ECU: 47.5%
- vs. Temple: 58.9%
- vs. Charlotte: 50.4%
- at Tulsa: 46.2%
Prediction for USF vs. Florida Atlantic
I was one of the highest on USF before the season, even calling quarterback Byrum Brown a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender, but it hasn’t shaken out that way. Despite Golesh’s uptempo offense and an abundance of talent at the skill positions, the Bulls haven’t implemented the high-scoring offense I expected.
On the other side, I’m sure Tom Herman and his staff had high expectations, but I can’t say it’s all that surprising that the Owls have struggled. The rushing offense hasn’t been that bad, but the passing attack has been nonexistent at times, leading to one of the nation’s worst third-down and red-zone offenses.
Defensively, it’s the opposite problem. The secondary has been excellent, but the run defense is awful, allowing 5.4 yards per attempt.
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That’s where I think the USF offense could thrive Friday, with Brown’s dual-threat rushing ability adding another dimension to the running game. I just don’t think an Owls defense allowing 231 rushing yards per game can stop the Bulls if USF decides to commit to the run.
The kicker here is that FAU is set up to play with a lead. If the Owls cause an early turnover or two, I think their rushing attack can sustain them for four quarters, especially if they turn those into early points.
If forced to play from behind, though, it’s over for the Owls. Even USF’s struggling offense has the pieces to sustain drives against the Owls.
Maybe there are some preseason projections still lingering, but I just think the Bulls are the far superior team.
It’s time they showed it. Roll with the Bulls in a methodical midweek game.
Prediction: USF 27, Florida Atlantic 16
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