The Crosstown Cup rivalry between the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins stands out as one of college football’s finest, boosted by the iconic sight of both teams wearing their vibrant home jerseys.
While the Trojans hold the edge in the all-time series (50-34-7), the Bruins made a statement last year with a decisive 38-20 victory.
In our USC vs. UCLA prediction, we’ll dive deep into the matchup, providing essential betting insights to help you make sharper, more confident picks.
USC vs. UCLA Betting Preview
All USC vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USC -2 - Spread
USC -5 - Moneyline
USC -185, UCLA +154 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 23 - Location
Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, 3 mph winds, showers - How To Watch
NBC
The Trojans have been abysmal on the road recently, going 0-4 against the spread. Of course, they won’t need to travel far for this one, with the Rose Bowl just a 40-minute drive from the Coliseum.
The Bruins, meanwhile, are on the come-up after a poor start to the year, going 4-1 ATS in their last five.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, neither side has been particularly exciting when it comes to the total:
- The under has hit in four of UCLA’s last five contests.
- The over has cashed in three of USC’s previous five outings.
USC’s Winning Probability
The Trojans may not be playing for a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff or the Big Ten Championship, but they could still make a bowl game with just one more win. Yet, their next two opponents won’t make it easy: bitter rival UCLA and the top-10 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
- at UCLA: 53.4%
- vs. Notre Dame: 27.0%
UCLA’s Winning Probability
Following a 1-5 start, it appeared the Bruins were destined for obscurity in Year 1 of the DeShaun Foster era. Instead, they are now just two wins away from bowl eligibility — though it won’t be easy to win out. UCLA faces crosstown rival USC and the Fresno State Bulldogs to end the year, who it hasn’t defeated since 2000.
- vs. USC: 46.6%
- vs. Fresno State: 79.6%
Prediction for USC vs. UCLA
UCLA and USC find themselves navigating uncharted waters, both sitting at 3-5 in Big Ten play and fighting to secure bowl eligibility. For the Bruins, winning out in Foster’s debut season is a must, while the Trojans need just one more victory to keep their season alive.
USC gained some traction in Week 12 with a 28-20 win over Nebraska, led by Jayden Maiava in his first start in Los Angeles. The UNLV transfer impressed, completing 25 of 35 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns while steering clear of costly mistakes.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Maiava’s efficiency has been a key reason USC’s offense remains inside the top 25 in success rate (21st), and his calm under pressure could be the deciding factor against UCLA’s reeling defense.
Defensively, the Bruins have struggled mightily. UCLA ranks among the nation’s worst in quality drives allowed, defensive finishing drives, and net points allowed per drive. Opposing quarterbacks have had a field day, with UCLA ranking 129th in contested catches forced and 118th in defensive dropback success rate.
Against a poised passer like Maiava, those weaknesses could prove disastrous.
On offense, UCLA’s issues are just as glaring. The Bruins managed a meager 4.2 yards per play in Week 12 against Washington, failing to produce any explosive drives. Even when they reach scoring range, their efficiency falters—averaging just three points per trip on 50 extended red-zone possessions this season.
QB Ethan Garbers faces an uphill battle against a USC defense that excels in limiting big plays, ranking second nationally in that category. Additionally, the Trojans rank in the top 30 in passing efficiency on defensive passing downs, giving them a clear advantage against UCLA’s sputtering attack.
With both teams leaning on their passing games, the edge tilts toward Maiava and USC. The Trojans’ defense, ranked 29th in EPA per dropback, is better equipped to handle the high volume of aerial attempts expected in this rivalry clash.
Prediction: USC 21, UCLA 17
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