The early returns on the effects of the 12-team College Football Playoff show that rather than devaluing the regular season as some have suggested, it has given college football fans many more games that are crucial to potential postseason seeding.
USC vs. Michigan is one such game. The game in Ann Arbor on Saturday will be critical to each team’s potential playoff hopes.
Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter, we’ll break down just how vital a win Saturday would be for each team’s potential playoff hopes.
Football Playoff Meter Breakdown: USC vs. Michigan
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is designed use future win probabilities to predict each team’s College Football Playoff chances. As real results come in from across the country, each team’s odds of winning its conference or making the playoff shifts.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
FPM thinks USC vs. Michigan is of critical importance to the College Football Playoff picture.
The Vegas spread is USC -5.5, but FPM has this game as a true toss-up, giving the Trojans a 51.2% chance of winning in Ann Arbor.
Accordingly, this is a swing game for each team, and the outcome will drastically change the season’s outlook for both Michigan and USC.
Let’s dive into the numbers.
What USC vs. Michigan Means to the Wolverines
The Wolverines have struggled to start the year, but there’s plenty of time to turn things around. After all, the defending champions are still 2-1. A win against the Trojans would have huge implications for Michigan’s season.
Currently, the Wolverines are projected at 7.3 wins on the season. Given that the game is a toss-up, that number will either increase by half a win, putting the Wolverines near the top of the Big Ten, or drop by half a win, suggesting they might have to fight just to make a bowl game.
The Wolverines probably aren’t making the College Football Playoff this year, but if they want to get to the postseason, the comeback has to start Saturday.
Currently, FPM gives Michigan a 4.3% chance to make the CFP. If the Wolverines beat the Trojans, however, that number nearly doubles to 8.1%. A win would raise Michigan’s projected win total to 7.8 wins. It would make them a Big Ten dark horse, giving them a 9% chance to win the conference.
But a loss would essentially end the Wolverines’ playoff hopes in mid-September.
A loss would drop Michigan’s playoff chances to just 1.4%. I guess there’s a chance something magically changes, but that underscores the importance of this game. Michigan’s chances of making the playoff after a win are nearly six times greater than with a loss.
That goes for the Wolverines’ chances of winning the Big Ten as well. Currently sitting with a 3.73% chance to win the Big Ten, a loss drops them to 3.3%, while a win nearly doubles Michigan’s chances.
Needless to say, the Wolverines need this one to avoid a potentially devastating season.
What USC vs. Michigan Means to the Trojans
As much as Michigan wants to avoid a loss, USC wants to secure a win. Currently projected at 9.3 wins, a loss would drop USC from a College Football Playoff hopeful to a Duke’s Mayo Bowl contender with 8.8 projected wins.
Currently, the Trojans have a 28.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff. A win over Michigan puts USC in true contention, though, as the Trojans would have a 48.9% chance of making the CFP after a win on Saturday, per FPM.
Similarly, a win would take USC’s Big Ten title odds from 11.67% to 19.89%.
But a loss would really sting for the Trojans. It wouldn’t take them completely out of contention, but it would certainly give them a steep hill to climb.
A loss would drop the Tojans’ playoff odds to just 19.9% and virtually exclude them from the Big Ten title race before it really even starts. If USC exits the weekend 0-1 in conference, the Trojans would have just a 2% chance of winning the league, nearly 10 times less than the Trojans’ percentage with a win.
Saturday’s game in Ann Arbor will have huge implications on the College Football Playoff and Big Ten title races.
Next time someone says the playoff renders the regular season useless, show them the stats and follow College Football Network for more FPM insights.
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