The UNLV Rebels have been a revelation in 2024, going 8-2 in one of the best campaigns in school history. However, a date with the San Jose State Spartans is up next, and they’ve been the Rebels’ kryptonite, owning a 21-6-1 record against them, including four straight. Can UNLV exorcise its demons, or will SJSU continue its streak over a conference foe?
Our UNLV vs. San Jose State prediction breaks down the matchup, offering key betting insights to help guide your wagers.
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UNLV vs. San Jose State Betting Preview
All UNLV vs. San Jose State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -10.5 - Spread
UNLV -7.5 - Moneyline
UNLV -278, San Jose State +225 - Over/Under
62 points - Game Time
10:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Nov. 22 - Location
CEFCU Stadium | San Jose, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, 9 mph winds, rain - How To Watch
FS1
UNLV may be 8-2 and only a game back from a conference title bid, but the program has been less than stellar against the spread, going 1-5 in the last six games. SJSU hasn’t been any better, going 1-5 ATS over the same period.
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Speaking of “over,” the Rebels have helped push the score over the total in five of their previous seven outings. The Spartans have had no such luck, with the under cashing in four of their last five.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels need to win out to keep their conference hopes alive, but they’ll also need a Boise State Broncos or Colorado State Rams loss to book their ticket to the Mountain West Championship.
- at San Jose State: 78.1%
- vs. Nevada: 90.8%
San Jose State’s Winning Probability
At 6-4, the Spartans are already bowl-bound, but their 3-3 conference record will keep them out of the title match for the fourth straight year. After a tough matchup with the Rebels, San Jose State will finish the season with a rivalry revival against the Stanford Cardinal in the Bill Walsh Legacy Game.
- vs. UNLV: 21.9%
- vs. Stanford: 50.6%
Prediction for UNLV vs. San Jose State
Although the Spartans put Boise State on upset watch with a 14-0 lead early in their Week 12 matchup, they ended up falling 42-21. Meanwhile, the Rebels put up a similar score against the San Diego State Aztecs (41-20).
If there’s one guarantee in this game, it’s that SJSU is going to air it out (65.3% pass rate, 1st). However, don’t expect QB Walker Eget to throw for another 446 yards and three TDs against UNLV, which allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt to Boise’s 8.1.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Additionally, the Rebels are 64th in defensive dropback success rate, while the Broncos are 80th. Still not convinced? Head coach Barry Odom’s defense is also tied for 13th in sacks per game (3.00), is 23rd in third-down conversation rate allowed (32.9%), and 29th in early down EPA.
We haven’t even discussed how QB Hajj-Malik Williams (22 TDs, four turnovers), RB Jai’Den Thomas (5.9 ypc), and WR Ricky White III (63-867-10 receiving line) should feast on SJSU’s below-average defense (25.9 ppg, 77th; 394.0 ypg, 95th; 0.061 EPA, 107th).
Back the Rebels to win and cover, although the total may be a bit too high for their pace of play, especially because the Spartans are surprisingly strong in the red zone (77.5%, 30th).
Prediction: UNLV 34, San Jose State 17
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