The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors own the all-time series lead (19-14) against the UNLV Rebels and have won five of the last six meetings on The Big Island — but this isn’t your father’s Rebels. Do the Rainbow Warriors stand a chance on their own turf?
Our UNLV vs. Hawaii prediction dives into the matchup, providing key betting insights to guide your picks.
UNLV vs. Hawaii Betting Preview
All UNLV vs. Hawaii odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -8 - Spread
UNLV -13 - Moneyline
UNLV -470, Hawaii +360 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
9:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9 - Location
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex | Honolulu, Hawaii - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, 14 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBSSN
November has been Hawaii’s month recently, as the program is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight November bouts. However, UNLV has gone 7-2-1 ATS in the previous 10 matchups with the Rainbow Warriors.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As for the total, the over has hit in five of the Rebels’ last six matchups with Mountain West opponents. But it’s been all under for the Rainbow Warriors:
- Eight of their last 10 games.
- Six of their last seven against UNLV.
- Seven of their last eight at home.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels are likely out of the College Football Playoff race, but it’s not over yet. If they win out in the regular season, make it to the conference title match against the Boise State Broncos, and enact revenge for their loss a couple of weeks ago, a real conversation would be needed.
- at Hawaii: 74.2%
- vs. San Diego State: 85.1%
- at San José State: 75.1%
- vs. Nevada: 86.8%
Hawaii’s Winning Probability
The Rainbow Warriors need just two wins to go bowling for the first time since 2020. Even if they fall to the Rebels at home, they have favorable matchups (+50% win probabilities) in each of their last two contests of the season.
- vs. UNLV: 25.8%
- at Utah State: 52.5%
- vs. New Mexico: 60.6%
Prediction for UNLV vs. Hawaii
It appears as though the Syracuse Orange have broken UNLV’s defense. Before their Week 6 meeting, the Rebels hadn’t allowed more than 20 points in a single game. Since then, they’ve allowed at least 25, including 44 against Syracuse and 34 to the Utah State Aggies.
However, the Rebels should right the ship in Week 11. Hawaii’s offense ranks 125th in sacks allowed per game (3.33), 98th in third-down conversion rate (98th), and 78th in early down EPA.
Plus, leading WR Pofele Ashlock could be out with a possible concussion. QB Brayden Schager has regressed after showing massive improvement last year and doesn’t have the talent around him to hide his warts.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The defense has improved under coordinator Dennis Thurman, but the unit couldn’t do much against comparably talented offenses this season, allowing 42 points against the Washington State Cougars and 28 to the Boise State Broncos.
Expect Hajj-Malik Williams and Ricky White III to pick them apart through the air and on the ground (26th in offensive success rate) and LB Jackson Woodard, DB Jalen Catalon, and Co. to limit Hawaii’s output.
Prediction: UNLV 34, Hawaii 17
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