A college football championship game under the Friday night lights? Sign us up! A Mountain West Championship Game that is a rematch between the UNLV Rebels and Boise State Broncos with College Football Playoff win-and-in implications? Pinch us, because this is what college football dreams are made of.
Who will come out on top? Our UNLV vs. Boise State prediction examines the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the winner of the Mountain West Championship Game.
UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All UNLV vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Boise State -4 - Moneyline
Boise State -185, UNLV +154 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, ID - Predicted Weather at Kick
38 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Friday marks the 14th matchup between the Broncos and the Rebels, and it’s been a ludicrously one-sided affair on the whole. Boise State has won the last eight encounters dating back to 1977, including their meeting earlier this year. Although it’s difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, the Broncos enter the Mountain West Championship Game as the favorite.
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In fact, as of Wednesday of title game week, the odds in this matchup are exactly the same as they were for the first matchup. The Broncos covered the spread and won outright in late October, but they’ve failed to cover in three of their last four. Meanwhile, UNLV is 2-1 outright and ATS as an underdog in 2024. These aren’t your dad’s Rebels, they’re the real deal.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Rebels, giving them a winning probability of 49.2%. A win on Friday could make the Rebels the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion, which would make them the 12 seed after fading from much of the public eye after starting the year 4-0.
- at Boise State: 49.2%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Broncos are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 50.8%. They’ll want to defend their home field, and a win could potentially give them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
- vs. UNLV: 50.8%
Prediction for UNLV vs. Boise State
The cat-and-mouse game between these two coaching staffs on Oct. 25 was beautiful.
Shockingly, Ashton Jeanty struggled somewhat to find running room, as the UNLV defense held the Heisman candidate to just 3.9 yards per carry.
However, Maddux Madsen was excellent on red zone read calls, running for 58 yards on just three carries. The Broncos followed the method the Syracuse Orange used to beat the Rebels by holding the ball and keeping the Rebels’ offense off the field, going 4-of-4 on fourth downs.
Boise State had 34 minutes of possession, helping the Broncos outgain the Rebels by 25 yards, despite UNLV’s offense averaging over a yard per play more than their opponent.
Most teams haven’t been able to move the ball on the Broncos this season like the Rebels did in their first matchup, and that was with a combined 63 yards from receivers Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus.
The question is: can the Broncos do it again?
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I’m fascinated by the potential adjustments these coaching staffs make before the teams’ second meeting. Spencer Danielson and his staff will want to figure out how to get Jeanty going after the Rebels hold him in check.
Similarly, Barry Odom wants to figure out how to get White and De Jesus more involved while bottling up Jeanty and protecting against Madsen.
It will be fascinating to see how they each do that. We’ll finally see Jeanty used a bit more in the passing game while UNLV again tries to disrupt the timing by applying edge pressure.
In predicting this game, I keep coming back to that yards-per-play disparity. UNLV may have been the better team when they faced off in October, even if the scoreline didn’t show it.
In a second meeting, I like the Rebels to catch a couple of breaks, and in a rematch, I like the Rebels’ ability to be multiple on offense. Brennan Marion and staff could theoretically run a drastically different game plan with ease, while Boise State might struggle with Jeanty as the primary threat.
Even if Boise State is a one-trick pony on offense, Jeanty is an incredible horse to have. That being said, I really like the Rebels and think they’re the team poised to pull off the upset.
This is the best game of the weekend, so enjoy what could be a wildly entertaining game. Give me the Rebels in a surprisingly low-scoring chess match.
Prediction: UNLV 27, Boise State 24
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