It’s safe to say Year Two under Hugh Freeze hasn’t gone as planned for the Auburn Tigers. At 3-6 heading into Week 12, they’ll need to win out just to secure a bowl game. However, if Auburn stumbles against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, Freeze might find himself more concerned about his job security than salvaging the season.
As for Louisiana-Monroe, the Warhawks are chasing only their second bowl bid in program history, and knocking off an SEC opponent to get there would be monumental. Can they pull off the upset? Here’s our take on this UL-Monroe vs. Auburn prediction.
UL-Monroe vs. Auburn Betting Preview
All Louisiana-Monroe vs. Auburn odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Auburn -10 - Spread
Auburn -24.5 - Moneyline
Auburn -3200, Louisiana-Monroe +1400 - Over/Under
46 points - Game Time
12:45 p.m. ET - Location
Jordan-Hare Stadium | Auburn, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, sunny, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Auburn definitely needs a good showing on Saturday. It’s not just a loss that could doom Freeze, but a too-close-for-comfort win could also hurt his future chances. That being said, this is a big line to cover against a competent team, and it suggests Vegas thinks little of the ULM offense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With an over/under set at 46 and a 24.5-point spread, Vegas projects a final score around 35-11 in Auburn’s favor.
UL-Monroe’s Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter is much closer than the Vegas line suggests, making the Warhawks 10-point underdogs. Their winning probability in this game is 22.6%, the Warhawks’ lowest remaining winning probability of the season.
- at Auburn: 22.6%
- at Arkansas State: 49.2%
- vs. Louisiana: 25.1%
Auburn’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Auburn has a 77.4% chance of beating the Warhawks at home. The Tigers won’t be happy with four wins, but since the last two are against SEC powers, they’d be wise to collect a win against ULM.
- vs. Louisiana-Monroe: 77.4%
- vs. Texas A&M: 17%
- at Alabama: 5.9%
Prediction for UL-Monroe vs. Auburn
This matchup offers plenty of storylines, but if you’re here for high-powered offense, look elsewhere. The quarterback play will be middling at best. Payton Thorne has had moments of competence this season, but Auburn’s offensive woes go far beyond him.
The stats don’t lie: Auburn’s offense is struggling. They rank 44th in yards per play, which is respectable, but they can’t seem to score when it matters—thanks in large part to the fourth-worst red zone offense in the nation.
On the other side, ULM’s offense isn’t much better, even before considering the level of competition they’ve faced. While the Warhawks are more efficient in the red zone, they sit at 125th in total yards per game, so moving the ball has been a major issue.
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Auburn should win this game. If Hugh Freeze plays it smart, he’ll lean heavily on Jarquez Hunter, as ULM’s rushing defense is vulnerable. The Tigers have the tools to control the game physically. If they don’t? Well, that spells trouble on the Plains.
Auburn has the edge here, but the real question is whether they can cover.
This feels like a game where Freeze may try to pad his team’s offensive stats. While I admire ULM’s defense, there’s only so much they can do against an SEC offensive line hammering away every play.
If Freeze aims to run up the score, Auburn should cover, but nothing would surprise me here. If ULM can generate some pass rush, the Tigers won’t cruise to an easy win.
In the end, I think Auburn pulls away, but the final score may not reflect how close the game actually was. Tigers fans likely won’t come away reassured. This will be a defense-heavy contest, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Freeze chases a shutout.
If you’re betting, take the under. Just don’t mistake this result as a sign that Auburn is suddenly a good team.
Prediction: Auburn 31, Louisiana-Monroe 10
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