If you’ve been living under a rock for the last few weeks and decided to make a Fenway Bowl preview your first return to civilization, welcome. Also, Bill Belichick has been named the new head coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels.
But even if you’ve been locked in, you might not know that North Carolina still plays a bowl game this season and that the UConn Huskies, led by their own former NFL head coach, are looking to get to nine wins for the third time in school history. Find out which team we think wins in this UConn vs. North Carolina prediction.
UConn vs. North Carolina Wasabi Fenway Bowl Betting Preview
All UConn vs. North Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
North Carolina -7 - Spread
North Carolina -2 - Moneyline
North Carolina -125, UConn +105 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 28, 11 a.m. ET - Location
Fenway Park | Boston, MA - How To Watch
ESPN
While the Tar Heels aren’t any more affected by opt-outs due to the transfer portal than other teams, the recent events of Belichick’s hiring have bettors thinking North Carolina will be a bit distracted. UConn, on the other hand, is relatively unaffected by opt-outs, though some injuries and a transfer in the secondary could have that unit looking thin.
The line on this game has moved somewhat significantly. After starting at North Carolina -6, the line has moved to its current number of -2. The key question mark is that we haven’t heard anything about star running back Omarion Hampton, who makes the Tar Heels’ offense go. The total has moved down slightly as well, from 56.5 to 54.5.
UConn’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Huskies, making UConn a seven-point underdog.
- vs. North Carolina: 31.2%
North Carolina’s Winning Probability
Last week’s events might be somewhat distracting, but on paper, the Tar Heels should be the better team.
- vs. UConn: 68.8%
Prediction for UConn vs. North Carolina
Good teams don’t get distracted by media attention. Unfortunately for the Tar Heels, I’m not convinced of their standing as a good team.
North Carolina hasn’t beaten a bowl team since August, going 0-6 in their many opportunities to do so. The offense and defense haven’t been able to get on the same page, and any success the Tar Heels have had has run through Hampton, who has run for 156 yards per game while averaging over 29 touches in wins.
If Hampton opts out of the Fenway Bowl, most of the Tar Heels’ offense will have opted out of the Fenway Bowl.
Hampton has accounted for 73% of North Carolina’s rushing yards and leads the team in receptions. He’d be the biggest non-quarterback opt-out of bowl season.
That’s in addition to the multiple offensive linemen the Tar Heels will likely miss on Dec. 28.
But while the Tar Heels struggled this season, the Huskies thrived. After an opening-week blowout loss, UConn never lost by more than seven points, handling business against the weaker teams on the schedule and holding their own against ACC opponents.
After three one-score losses to ACC teams — two that won nine games — the Huskies don’t want to be shut out by the conference.
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UConn’s defense has been one of the better units in the country, holding nine of 12 opponents under 28 points. The front seven is talented and at full strength for a bowl game that greatly matters to the UConn players and coaching staff.
The Huskies have shown the ability to frustrate opposing offenses by taking away whatever they do the best.
Given North Carolina’s focus on the transfer portal and UConn’s strength this season, I’m ignoring the helmets and taking the team I think might be better. That’s without the added element of a North Carolina team in flux.
Take the Huskies and the under, as they’ll grind it out and frustrate the Tar Heels. If Hampton decides to play, I’ll be nervous. But without its best player, I don’t think North Carolina’s offense can score enough to beat UConn.
Prediction: UConn 26, North Carolina 21
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