UCLA and Penn State haven’t played each other in 56 years — the Bruins likely wish it would be 57. With the Nittany Lions as near-30-point home favorites, there’s little suspense in this Week 6 Big Ten battle. However, for the CFB betting degenerates who clicked on this article, where should you invest your money?
UCLA vs. Penn State Betting and DFS Preview
All UCLA vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -24.5 - Spread
Penn State -28.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -8000, UCLA +2200 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, 6 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
Fox
Penn State opened as a 22-point favorite, but the line has increased by over six since then. Clearly, the books are giving the Bruins a near-0% chance of pulling off the upset.
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With the over going 1-3 for both teams so far this year, what’s the play? Well, the under has hit in eight of UCLA’s last 10 games and six of Penn State’s last eight.
UCLA’s Winning Probability
With the spread pushing 30, it’s no surprise the Bruins’ win probability is a paltry 4.3%. UCLA is hunting for its first Big Ten win and trying to avoid extending a three-game skid — the only difference that sentence will have next week is “four-game skid.”
While the rest of the schedule isn’t as daunting, the City of Angels could legitimately go 0-fer. Here are the Bruins’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Minnesota: 39.4%
- at Rutgers: 20.7%
- at Nebraska: 20.4%
- vs. Iowa: 26.2%
- at Washington: 24.9%
- vs. USC: 18.9%
- vs. Fresno State: 48.8%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
By simple math, the Nittany Lions own a 95.7% win probability in Week 6. It’s not a one-off either, as they are favored to come out on top in all but one of their final seven games. Here are the Nittany Lions’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at USC: 65.1%
- at Wisconsin: 82.8%
- vs. Ohio State: 49.4%
- vs. Washington: 90.8%
- at Purdue: 91.1%
- at Minnesota: 84.2%
- vs. Maryland: 92.3%
Prediction UCLA vs. Penn State
There is no money in picking the Nittany Lions to complete their home defense in Week 6, and while they should cover, 29 is a lot of points.
That said, UCLA is 1-3, with its lone victory coming in a 16-13 Week 1 bout with a struggling Hawaii squad. The Bruins are 128th in the country in scoring, 133rd in rushing, and 105th in scoring defense — not great.
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The nature of Penn State’s ground-heavy attack limits its scoring output, and the defense should have no issue keeping Ethan Garbers and Co. off the scoreboard. Thus, the under is the play in this one, though things could go sideways quickly if UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster has already lost the locker room.
Prediction: Penn State 38, UCLA 6
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