The UCF Knights just snapped a five-game win streak with a 56-12 thrashing of the Arizona Wildcats, but can they avoid beginning a new skid in Week 11? They’ve only faced the Arizona State Sun Devils once before, but it was a 46-13 blowout loss in 2002.
Our UCF vs. Arizona State prediction breaks down the matchup, offering key betting insights to guide your wagers.
UCF vs. Arizona State Betting Preview
All UCF vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona State -8 - Spread
Arizona State -2.5 - Moneyline
Arizona State -142, UCF +120 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
7 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9 - Location
Mountain America Stadium | Tempe, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, 4 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
ESPN2
Based on trends, there’s an obvious pick against the spread in this one: ASU.
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The Sun Devils are 6-2 straight up and ATS this season, including 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Meanwhile, UCF is just 2-4 ATS in their previous six bouts.
The total trends are far less clear. The over has hit in seven of the Knights’ previous nine contests, but the total went under in five of Arizona State’s last seven.
UCF’s Winning Probability
Even though UCF needs just two wins to go bowling, they may not achieve them. The FPM gives the Knights lower than 30% win probabilities in their next two matchups, with the season finale against Utah sitting just above.
- at Arizona State: 26.2%
- at West Virginia: 27.0%
- at Utah: 33.6%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
The Sun Devils are en route to a bowl game for the first time in three years, but they’re playing for a spot in the Big 12 title match. The run begins with UCF before ranked duels against Kansas State and BYU.
- vs. UCF: 73.8%
- at Kansas State: 32.3%
- vs. BYU: 26.6%
- at Arizona: 51.8%
Prediction for UCF vs. Arizona State
While the Knights boast the most productive rushing attack among Power Five programs (272.3 yards per game), the Sun Devils are no slouch at defending the run, allowing just 111.9 ypg (27th).
Just last week, they held reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon to 24 yards on 11 carries. While UCF RB RJ Harvey has generated 120+ yards in all but three games this season and will get his in this one, ASU could frustrate him up the middle.
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However, the biggest factor will be freshman QB Dylan Rizk, who was lights out in his first career start last week (20/25 passing for 294 yards and three TDs). The question is, was that simply beginner’s luck against a poor defense or a sign of things to come?
Rizk could have a bright future in Orlando, but against a defense ranked 53rd in success rate and 34th in predicted points added per play, he’ll likely come down to Earth in Week 11. Take QB Sam Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo to win their fifth straight at home and cover the way-too-low spread.
Prediction: Arizona State 31, UCF 20
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