The UC Davis Aggies have faced the South Dakota Cyclones four times (2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015) — they are on a three-game losing streak. Will they end the drought in the FCS quarterfinals?
Our UC Davis vs. South Dakota prediction breaks down everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they navigate the FCS quarterfinals.
UC Davis vs. South Dakota FCS Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All UC Davis vs. South Dakota odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024.
- Spread
South Dakota -5.5 - Moneyline
South Dakota -205, UC Davis +170 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
3 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 14 - Location
The DakotaDome | Vermillion, S. Dak. - Predicted Weather at Kick
32 degrees, 5 mph winds, rain and snow - How To Watch
ESPN+
The Coyotes are 5-0 against the spread in their last five contests. The Aggies are 3-0 ATS as underdogs on the year. Which streak will snap on Saturday?
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The total is a bit more straightforward according to recent trends:
- The over has hit in four of South Dakota’s last five games overall and its last five home bouts.
- The over has cashed in three of UC Davis’ past five outings.
Prediction for UC Davis vs. South Dakota
This matchup feels like a chess match between two evenly matched teams, both sporting dynamic backfields, elite playmakers, and stingy defenses. The difference could boil down to which QB delivers in high-pressure moments.
Both offenses excel on third down, hovering around 45% conversion rates, making those critical downs the deciding factor. Yet, cracks in South Dakota’s defense have emerged in recent games, with North Dakota, North Dakota State, and Tarleton finding ways to score around 30 points.
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South Dakota has a four-headed monster on offense in QB Aidan Bouman (69% completion rate, 9.5 ypa, 16 TDs, and two INTs), RBs Charles Pierre Jr. (151-1,154-15 rushing line) and Travis Theis (155-976-16), and WR Carter Bell (46-685-3).
UC Davis has its own four-player attack, but the offense really operates through do-it-all back Lan Larison (277-1,425-17 rushing line and 61-842-6 receiving line) and QB Miles Hastings (70.2% completion rate, 8.9 ypa, 35 TDs, and eight INTs).
However, the Coyotes’ edge in the trenches is likely enough to power their way to the semifinals. The Aggies will definitely take chances (13 fourth-down attempts on the year), but their inability to execute them could be their downfall (three fourth-down conversions) in a tight match.
Prediction: South Dakota 34, UC Davis 31
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