The race for the Group of Five playoff spot has heated up in recent weeks, but don’t forget about the Tulane Green Wave, who have won five straight after starting 1-2.
They’ll have a Halloween clash with the Charlotte 49ers, who have had typical Year 2 struggles under Biff Poggi. Find out if the Green Wave can cover in this Tulane vs. Charlotte prediction.
Tulane vs. Charlotte Betting Preview
All Tulane vs. Charlotte odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tulane -12.5 - Spread
Tulane -16.5 - Moneyline
Tulane -800, Charlotte +550 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 31, 7:30 ET - Location
Jerry Richardson Stadium | Clemson, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, partly cloudy, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Charlotte has looked more competent in recent weeks after barely avoiding an 0-4 start. The 49ers took Memphis to the brink last week, while Tulane has run through the AAC since getting into conference play.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Green Wave are currently 16.5-point road favorites. The total of 55.5 points seems to be in the middle, as Vegas isn’t sure what to do with the Jekyll and Hyde 49ers. Vegas implies a final score close to a 36-20 win for Tulane.
Tulane’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is not quite as high on the Green Wave in this one as Vegas. The Green Wave are moderate favorites on the road, per the metric, with an implied spread of just over 11 points and a winning probability of 82.6%. The metric makes them heavy favorites next week before two closer games to end the year.
- at Charlotte: 82.6%
- vs. Temple: 92.1%
- at Navy: 60.9%
- vs. Memphis: 55.6%
Charlotte’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Charlotte a 17.4% chance to win and has the 49ers as moderate-to-heavy underdogs in three of four remaining games. While bowl eligbility isn’t a complete impossibility, it is statistically improbable.
- vs. Tulane: 17.4%
- vs. USF: 34.9%
- at FAU: 49.6%
- vs. UAB: 66.9%
Prediction for Tulane vs. Charlotte
People seemingly forgot about Tulane after the Green Wave lost two close road games to Kansas State and Oklahoma, both influenced by late turnovers.
That Green Wave team is certainly not the same as the one today. This Green Wave team has scored 40 points in four of its last five and has put just about ever game away by the end of the third quarter.
Charlotte has been streaky, struggling early before playing better in recent weeks, aside from an ugly 51-17 loss to Navy. The 49ers are holding their own against similarly talented teams and punching up against a few of the AAC’s best.
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Unfortunately for Charlotte, Tulane looks like the cream of the AAC crop. Despite one of the hardest Group of Five non-conference schedules, the Green Wave emerged 2-2 and ready for the AAC slate. That served them well as Jon Sumrall let Darian Mensah struggle early to prepare himself for the conference slate.
Mensah has been exceptional, with eight touchdowns and just one interception in his last four games. But even then, its been running back Makhi Hughes who has been the star. Hughes has run for 115 yards in four of his last five games, scoring nine touchdowns in that span.
That concerns me for a Charlotte defense that has struggled when its opponents have been able to consistently run the ball. If Tulane jumps out early, the Green Wave will control the tempo and make the 49ers press.
Though the 49ers have covered in three of their last four, I like the Green Wave to stretch the lead early and make Charlotte chase the game, something the 49ers have really struggled to do.
Expect another Tulane blowout that ticks over, as that has hit in 11 of 16 games this season for the teams.
Prediction: Tulane 41, Charlotte 20
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