This year might finally be the year, or so the rankings suggest. But can Penn State go from perennial “almosts” to actual College Football Playoff contenders in 2025?
As another college football season creeps closer, the Penn State Nittany Lions find themselves in a familiar position: high expectations, elite preseason rankings, and an even bigger question mark. Could this finally be the year James Franklin’s squad smashes through the “good but not great” ceiling and charges into the College Football Playoff?
The answer might be yes if you believe the preseason power rankings and computer simulations.
Penn State’s Power Rankings Buzz
The excitement in Happy Valley is rooted in numbers—specifically, the ones spit out by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). In early June 2025, the FPI placed Penn State at No. 5 in the nation, one spot higher than last year’s finish. Notably, CBS Sports agrees, slotting the Nittany Lions into the same fifth spot in their 2025 preseason rankings.
This isn’t just about reputation either. The FPI projects a 63.8% chance that Penn State reaches the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, with a 7.6% shot at winning the whole thing. Their projected win total? 10.2, right behind archrival Ohio State’s 10.4. In short, Penn State isn’t just knocking on the door—they might finally have the key.
Why the hype?
#WeAre…Better #107kStrong #PSUnrivaled pic.twitter.com/75lfHr8TlN
— James Franklin (@coachjfranklin) June 3, 2025
At quarterback, Drew Allar returns for his junior season with a full year of starting experience under his belt. The former five-star recruit showed flashes in 2024, and now, fans and coaches alike are hoping he turns those flashes into full-blown fireworks. His growth in poise, accuracy, and big-game execution could be the X-factor in Penn State’s Playoff push.
Helping take pressure off Allar is arguably the best running back duo in college football: Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. These two aren’t just fast, punishing, consistent, and productive. Each has already recorded 1,000-yard seasons, and together they give Penn State a backfield that most teams would envy.
As for the receiving corps? That’s been an area of concern recently, but 2025 could flip the script. Trebor Pena (Syracuse), Devonte Ross (Troy), and Kyron Hudson (USC) all arrived via the transfer portal and bring much-needed experience and explosiveness. Pena led the ACC in receptions last year.
Ross posted over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs at Troy. Add in promising redshirt freshman Tyseer Denmark, and Allar suddenly has some serious weapons on the outside.
The defense continues to be Penn State’s bread and butter, even amid coordinator changes. Despite losing Tom Allen (who left for Clemson in January 2025), the Nittany Lions have still climbed to No. 7 in defensive FPI. That’s saying something.
DC has had a revolving door recently—Manny Diaz left after 2023, Allen filled in for 2024, and now a third coordinator steps in. Yet, the performance hasn’t wavered, largely thanks to a deep talent pipeline and a system that prioritizes speed and aggression.
But Can They Beat the Big Boys?
Here’s the elephant in the room. Yes, Penn State looks stacked. Yes, they’re in the top 55 in every metric that matters. But they’ve been here before—ranked high, riding a wave of momentum—only to get smacked around by Ohio State or Michigan when it counts most.
In 2024, the Lions went 10-3, including a dominant Peach Bowl win over Ole Miss, but missed the Playoff yet again. Their inability to beat Big Ten powers when it matters is the shadow that hangs over the program.
And then there’s the offensive line—experienced, yes, but will they be able to stand up against elite defensive fronts like Georgia or Texas if the Lions get that far? That’s a question that only the trenches can answer come fall.
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Circle your calendars now: Sept. 27 vs. Oregon. That’s Penn State’s annual White Out game and their first significant test of the season. Oregon enters the year ranked No. 6 in the FPI, making this a likely Playoff-shaping showdown.
Other notable matchups:
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August 30 vs. Nevada
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September 6 vs. FIU
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November 1 at Ohio State (perhaps the biggest test of all)
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Big Ten games vs. UCLA, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Michigan State
This year, they avoid Michigan in the regular season, but with the Big Ten expanding, there’s little room for a stumble. Penn State needs to win the big games—and do it convincingly.
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