Goodbye, first round of the College Football Playoff. Hello, quarterfinals.
The Texas Longhorns will face the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second-ever matchup between the two. What happened the first time around? Texas won a 52-34 thriller in 2007.
Who comes out on top this time? Our Texas vs. Arizona State prediction dives into everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they square off in the second round of the 2024 College Football Playoff.
Texas vs. Arizona State College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -6 - Spread
Texas -13.5 - Moneyline
Texas -535, Arizona State +400 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
1 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Jan. 1 - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
The Sun Devils have been a fruitful underdog this year, going 4-2 against the spread and winning four outright. They’ve also rattled off six straight victories ATS. Their games have often resulted in fireworks as well, with the over cashing in five of the last six contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Texas has been favored all year but is only 1-3 ATS in its last four as double-digit favorites. At least the Longhorns just snapped a four-game streak of under in their dominant first-round win over the Clemson Tigers.
Texas’ Winning Probability
The Longhorns have steadily progressed under Steve Sarkisian, going from 5-7 to 8-5 to 12-2 and a CFP berth last season. Although they fell short 37-31 to the Washington Huskies, they came right back with an 11-2 campaign in their SEC debut.
Now it is time to prove the program is a true national title contender, especially with both losses coming against the Georgia Bulldogs this year.
- at Arizona State: 66.4%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
The Sun Devils pulled off the unthinkable this year, going from 3-9 to 11-2 in Year 2 of the Kenny Dillingham era. More than that, they won the Big 12 championship despite being picked to finish last in the conference and will play in their first postseason contest since 2021.
- vs. Texas: 33.6%
Prediction for Texas vs. Arizona State
Texas has thrived in the trenches on both sides of the ball this year, but its one question mark has been under center. Quinn Ewers’ decision-making has regressed since last season, vastly lowering the floor of the offense, although the ceiling remains high.
Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have been the modicum of consistency, riding RB Cam Skattebo to 11 wins (60.69% run rate, 11th highest), with QB Sam Leavitt contributing in all the right moments.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
“Everybody’s going to tell them how good they are this week when they go home and all that stuff, and hopefully they can get that flushed out of their mind when we come back Sunday and realize that we’re still probably the worst team in this playoff according to what everybody believes,” Dillingham said on Dec 16. “So we still have a chip on our shoulder.”
The betting lines have since backed up Dillingham’s statement, with Arizona State entering the first round of the playoff at +6,000 to win it all — the longest odds in the 12-team field, tied with Boise State and Clemson.
While the Sun Devils have been a great story and should give the Longhorns more fits than Clemson was able to, raw talent and depth will likely see them fall short. Texas’ defense ranks seventh in EPA per rush, 13th in third/fourth-down success rate, and first in net points per drive, so it should be able to contain Skattebo (as much as that is possible).
On the flip side, as long as Ewers doesn’t turn into a pumpkin at the absolute wrong moments, the offense should continue humming. Arizona State’s defense is 48th in early down EPA, 70th in success rate, and 57th in points per drive.
Take Sarkisian and Co. to continue their CFP journey with a convincing — albeit close — victory over the Sun Devils.
Prediction: Texas 34, Arizona State 27
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.