Goodbye, first round of the College Football Playoff. Hello, quarterfinals.
Up next, the Texas Longhorns take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in just the second-ever meeting between these programs. The first clash? A 52-34 Texas victory back in 2007.
Who takes the win this time? Our Texas vs. Arizona State prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to the high stakes both teams face as they battle it out in the second round of the 2024 College Football Playoff.
Texas vs. Arizona State College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -6 - Spread
Texas -13 - Moneyline
Texas -500, Arizona State +380 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
1 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Jan. 1 - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
The Sun Devils have been a fruitful underdog this year, going 4-2 against the spread and winning four outright. They’ve also rattled off six straight victories ATS. Their games have often resulted in fireworks as well, with the over cashing in five of the last six contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Texas has been favored all year but is only 1-3 ATS in its last four as double-digit favorites. At least the Longhorns just snapped a four-game streak of under in their dominant first-round win over the Clemson Tigers.
Texas’ Winning Probability
The Longhorns have steadily progressed under Steve Sarkisian, going from 5-7 to 8-5 to 12-2 and a CFP berth last season. Although they fell short 37-31 to the Washington Huskies, they came right back with an 11-2 campaign in their SEC debut.
Now it is time to prove the program is a true national title contender, especially with both losses coming against the Georgia Bulldogs this year.
- at Arizona State: 66.4%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
The Sun Devils pulled off the unthinkable this year, going from 3-9 to 11-2 in Year 2 of the Kenny Dillingham era. More than that, they won the Big 12 championship despite being picked to finish last in the conference and will play in their first postseason contest since 2021.
- vs. Texas: 33.6%
Prediction for Texas vs. Arizona State
Texas has dominated in the trenches this season, asserting itself on both sides of the ball. However, the one lingering question mark lies under center. Quinn Ewers’ decision-making has taken a step back from last year, lowering the offense’s floor, though its ceiling remains as high as ever.
On the other side, the Sun Devils have embodied consistency, leaning heavily on RB Cam Skattebo to power their 11-win season (with a 60.69% run rate, the 11th highest in the nation). QB Sam Leavitt has complemented that ground game perfectly, delivering in all the key moments.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Head coach Kenny Dillingham offered a candid assessment on Dec. 16, saying, “Everybody’s going to tell them how good they are this week when they go home and all that stuff, and hopefully they can get that flushed out of their mind when we come back Sunday and realize that we’re still probably the worst team in this playoff according to what everybody believes. So we still have a chip on our shoulder.”
Oddsmakers have echoed Dillingham’s sentiment, with Arizona State entering the playoff as a +6,000 long shot to win it all—tied with Boise State and Clemson for the steepest odds in the 12-team field.
The Sun Devils’ improbable run has been a great story, and they’re likely to challenge the Longhorns more than Clemson did. Still, Texas’ overwhelming talent and depth should ultimately prove too much. Defensively, the Longhorns rank seventh in EPA per rush, 13th in third- and fourth-down success rate, and first in net points per drive. If anyone can slow down Skattebo, it’s this unit.
Offensively, the game hinges on Ewers. As long as he avoids untimely mistakes, Texas should find its rhythm against an Arizona State defense that ranks 48th in early-down EPA, 70th in success rate, and 57th in points allowed per drive.
Expect Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns to keep their CFP run alive with a convincing—albeit hard-fought—win over the Sun Devils.
Prediction: Texas 34, Arizona State 27
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