Just eight teams in college football remain undefeated, yet the Iowa State Cyclones continue to fly under the radar. Perhaps it’s the absence of standout wins or dominant performances, or maybe their low preseason profile still lingers into the season. Either way, they’re unbeaten—and underrated.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders, on the other hand, have had a roller-coaster season. Could they be the ones to spoil Iowa State’s perfect run on Saturday? Dive into our Texas Tech vs. Iowa State prediction to see if we think the Red Raiders can pull off the upset.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All Texas Tech vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -9.5 - Spread
Iowa State -13.5 - Moneyline
Iowa State -550, Texas Tech +410 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Jack Trice Stadium | Ames, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, rainy, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Last week’s results encapsulate each team’s entire season. The Red Raiders lost a game they absolutely should have won, botching an end-of-game situation in which they had the ball in field-goal range, down one, at the end of the game and never attempted a kick.
Iowa State, on the other hand, was outplayed by UCF and still managed to win late.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Cyclones are just over two-touchdown favorites. With a total of 56.5 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 34-20 in favor of Iowa State.
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Sitting at 5-3, the Red Raiders are one win away from bowl eligibility but have stalled in recent weeks, taking back-to-back losses to Baylor and TCU. That’s hurt their season’s outlook.
According to CFN’s FPM, Texas Tech has a win probability of just 24.5% in this game. The final three games are true toss-ups, meaning there are a wide range of potential outcomes for the year.
- at Iowa State: 24.5%
- vs. Colorado: 50.6%
- at Oklahoma State: 48.8%
- vs. West Virginia: 52.5%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Iowa State has a 75.5% chance of overcoming the Red Raiders at home. If the Cyclones can pull out the win on Saturday, it won’t be time to put them on watch for an undefeated season, but they will likely be favored in their final four games.
- vs. Texas Tech: 75.5%
- at Kansas: 75.5%
- vs. Cincinnati: 82.6%
- at Utah: 66.4%
- vs. Kansas State: 55.6%
Prediction for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Texas Tech’s season has been a rollercoaster, particularly on defense. The Red Raiders have allowed 35 points in five of their eight games, including all three losses, though it looked like they’d found some stability—until giving up 59 to Baylor two weeks ago.
Adding to their struggles, quarterback Behren Morton exited the last game with an injury, a setback that proved costly as Texas Tech fell short. True freshman Will Hammond stepped in admirably but suffered a crucial fumble late in the game, wiping out a shot at a potential game-winning field goal.
Morton’s injury appears to be a collarbone or shoulder issue on his non-throwing arm, and his status remains uncertain for Saturday’s matchup.
But, in the end, it might not make a difference.
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Iowa State barely dodged an upset against UCF two weeks ago, rallying from 14 points down in the third quarter and eight down in the fourth to pull off a narrow win, despite one of quarterback Rocco Becht’s roughest performances.
The Cyclones have shown they can win in different styles, handling both shootouts and defensive battles. They should be able to move the ball on Texas Tech and reach that 35-point threshold that has haunted the Red Raiders all season.
This line is tricky; 14 points feels about right. Ultimately, I’m not convinced the Cyclones will blow out any solid opponent, but they should score enough to push the total over, with Texas Tech likely covering.
Prediction: Iowa State 38, Texas Tech 28
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