Texas Tech and Arizona have a long history, facing off 33 times, but they’ve only met once since 1990. In their most recent matchup in 2019, the Wildcats took down the Red Raiders 28-14 in Tucson, and a repeat performance could be in the cards.
We break down this fresh Big 12 showdown with the latest odds and spread analysis in our Texas Tech vs. Arizona prediction.
Texas Tech vs. Arizona Betting Preview
All Texas Tech vs. Arizona odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona -9 - Spread
Arizona -6.5 - Moneyline
Arizona -245, Texas Tech +200 - Over/Under
63.5 points - Game Time
11:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
91 degrees, 8 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
Fox
Arizona opened as three-point favorites, but that has quickly increased by 3.5. What does that mean for against-the-spread (ATS) picks?
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
While the Wildcats are 0-2 ATS at home this year, they are 4-1 in their last five games against Big 12 opponents.
As for the total, there are two competing trends. First, the under has hit in five of Texas Tech’s last six road games. Second, the over has hit in five of Arizona’s last six games as the favorite.
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Texas Tech fans, brace yourselves: The team’s chances of upsetting Arizona on the road stand at just 25.1%. This marks the Red Raiders’ lowest projected win probability for any of their remaining games, tied only with the Nov. 2 matchup against Iowa State in Ames, Iowa.
- vs. Baylor: 63.6%
- at TCU: 47.5%
- at Iowa State: 25.1%
- vs. Colorado: 52.5%
- at Oklahoma State: 36.4%
- vs. West Virginia: 50.8%
Arizona’s Winning Probability
The CFN FPM is even more bullish on Arizona than the sportsbooks, giving the Wildcats a 74.9% probability in Week 6. In fact, the program owns a higher than 63% rate in all but one of their remaining games this year.
- at BYU: 48.2%
- vs. Colorado: 74.2%
- vs. West Virginia: 73.0%
- at UCF: 63.1%
- vs. Houston: 91.3%
- at TCU: 64.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 77.4%
Prediction Texas Tech vs. Arizona
On paper, the Red Raiders pose a challenging matchup for the Wildcats. Texas Tech ranks 15th in offensive rush EPA and 17th in defensive dropback EPA per play. In comparison, Arizona ranks 15th in offensive dropback EPA but falls to 49th in defensive rush EPA per play.
In short, the Red Raiders’ strengths line up perfectly against the Wildcats’ vulnerabilities. However, Joey McGuire’s teams have struggled on the road, with a 3-9 away record during his tenure in Lubbock.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The opposite holds true for Brent Brennan, who finished 10-2 in his last 12 home games at San José State. And while Jedd Fisch has since taken over at Washington, Arizona still boasts a solid 7-1 home record since last season.
In the end, I trust the Wildcats to stay locked in at home and avoid a letdown after last week’s upset victory over Utah. The Red Raiders, fresh off a 44-41 thriller against Cincinnati, could be primed for a letdown in Week 6. Back Arizona against the spread and lean toward the under.
Prediction: Arizona 35, Texas Tech 27
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