The Greek epic poet Homer wrote, “Troy has perished, the great city, only red flame now lives there.
The situation for the 2024 Troy Trojans isn’t quite that dire, but it’s rapidly approaching dangerous levels. First-year head coach Gerad Parker is now 1-4 in his tenure without an FBS win, and the quarterback room is extremely banged up. Things could get ugly if there’s not rapid improvement, but with the beleaguered Texas State Bobcats coming to town, there’s an opportunity to stop the skid.
Can the Trojans begin to build some momentum? Before you bet, take a look at our Texas State vs. Troy prediction.
Texas State vs. Troy Betting Preview
All Texas State vs. Troy odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas State -5.5 - Spread
Texas State -14 - Moneyline
Texas State -535, Troy +400 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 3, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama - Predicted Weather at Kick
79 degrees, clear, 14 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas vary greatly on this one, as both have the the Bobcats as favorites, but differ on the extent. With a spread of 14 points and a total of 57.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 36-22 in favor of Texas State.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread has bounced back and forth between 14 and 14.5, an important half-point in the grand scheme of things, while the total has remained largely unchanged.
Texas State’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter thinks far less of the Bobcats than the oddsmakers do.
FPM has Texas State as 5.5-point favorites, giving it a win probability of 65.1%. That represents the third-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, as the Bobcats are favored by the metric in every game except the finale.
The Bobcats’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Troy: 65.1%
- vs. Arkansas State: 76.6%
- at Old Dominion: 77.4%
- vs. Louisiana: 54.3%
- at UL-Monroe: 65.7%
- vs. Southern Miss: 79.3%
- vs. Georgia State: 73.0%
- at South Alabama: 49.3%
Troy’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Troy has a 34.9% chance to win on Saturday. Though the Trojans are underdogs, FPM thinks this is an important game in preventing a true bottoming out, as they’re underdogs in five of their remaining seven games. If Troy wants to end up with a respectable first season under Parker, the team needs to win a game or two it isn’t expected to.
The Trojans’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Texas State: 34.9%
- at South Alabama: 26.2%
- at Arkansas State: 49.2%
- vs. Coastal Carolina: 50.4%
- vs. Georgia Southern: 47.2%
- at Louisiana: 26.2%
- vs. Southern Miss: 57.4%
- vs. Kansas State: 61.1%
Prediction for Texas State vs. Troy
Neither team is entering Thursday’s clash with positive momentum. Troy stalled out of the gate, and Texas State was considered a dark-horse playoff contender just two weeks ago before disappointing losses to Arizona State and Sam Houston State.
G.J. Kinne’s Bobcats team has excelled at getting off to fast starts this year, but the second-half offense has been abysmal. Texas State has scored over 28 points a game before halftime but just 10.25 points per game in the second half.
It nearly cost them against FCS Lamar in Week 1 and has cost them in the last two weeks as both Arizona State and Sam Houston State mounted furious comebacks after being down 14 and 22, respectively.
The offense has been competent with Goose Crowder at quarterback but has struggled when he’s been injured, which has been for most of the season. The rushing attack has been persistent but has lacked bite. The Trojans are 33rd in rush rate and 90th in rush yardage.
Defensively, it’s been a mixed bag, and the better games for the defense have coincided with the worst games for the offense.
However, there’s something here, and the Trojans held UL-Monroe to just 257 total yards. The rushing attack also took off in that game, averaging over 5.5 yards per non-sack carry and breaking off several explosive runs with Tucker Kilcrease at quarterback.
It will depend on whether Crowder can return. If not, a full week of game planning for Kilcrease could lead to improved offensive results.
I’m genuinely concerned about Texas State’s second-half offense. Typically, lackluster late-game numbers indicate teams are adjusting to whatever the offense throws at them after the 10-15 “scripted” plays.
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This version of Troy keeps games close, which should scare Texas State. I don’t think the Bobcats can magically figure out how to put teams away in just five days.
If you look up in the third quarter and see a close game, know that Troy can absolutely win it late. That being said, Troy doesn’t have the offensive consistency to put up a crooked number.
Accordingly, I’m aligned with the FPM here, and see Texas State holding on, but not blowing out the Trojans. I don’t think Troy lets this turn into a shootout, so take the under too.
Prediction: Texas State 31, Troy 24
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