The Texas State Bobcats and South Alabama Jaguars have faced off nine, with neither winning back-to-back games thus far. Each contest has been electric, with all but one going over a 50-point total. Will the Bobcats break the two-consecutive-win drought, or will the Jaguars finish a season with 7+ for the third straight year?
In our Texas State vs. South Alabama prediction, we break down the matchup in detail, offering key betting insights to help you make smarter, more confident picks.
Texas State vs. South Alabama Betting Preview
All Texas State vs. South Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
South Alabama -2 - Spread
Texas State -1 - Moneyline
Texas State -115, South Alabama -105 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Nov. 29 - Location
Hancock Whitney Stadium | Mobile, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, 11 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
ESPN+
The Jaguars are 2-1 against the spread as underdogs this year and face the same role in Week 14, as the Bobcats have been favored in every game this season. That said, Texas State is only 5-6 ATS in 2024.
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Although six of South Alabama’s last eight games have gone under the total, the over has hit in four of Texas State’s last five and in five of the past six Bobcats-Jaguars matchups.
Texas State’s Winning Probability
It’s only Year 2 of the G.J. Kinne era, but the head coach has already earned a new seven-year deal with the Bobcats. The program went 8-5 with a bowl win last year and is currently 6-5 with a bowl game around the corner. However, Kinne won’t overlook a Jaguars team that pushed the Bobcats in a 52-44 thriller last season.
- at South Alabama: 46.6%
South Alabama’s Winning Probability
After several successful years as the OC/QBs coach under Kane Wommack, Major Applewhite was promoted to head coach when Wommack left for the OC role with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Applewhite didn’t miss a beat, as his Jaguars earned their third straight bowl berth — the longest in the program’s relatively young FBS history (2012).
- vs. Texas State: 53.4%
Prediction for Texas State vs. South Alabama
Jordan McCloud. Gio Lopez. You won’t find many more exciting QB duels on the Group of Five stage. As we’ve seen in recent matchups between these teams, defense will largely be nonexistent, allowing the offenses to trade blows — hint: take the over. But which one will come out on top?
- Early-down EPA per play: South Alabama, 14th; Texas State, 15th
- EPA per dropback: South Alabama, 50th; Texas State, 42nd
- Success rate: South Alabama, 13th; Texas State, 16th
- Net points per drive: South Alabama, 25th; Texas State, 14th
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Yeah, this one could come down to which team has the ball last. Nevertheless, the lean is toward the Bobcats winning outright and ATS. They are significantly better on money downs, both offensively (25th in success rate to 77th) and defensively (33rd to 40th).
The Jaguars have also racked up 20 more penalties this season, highlighting discipline concerns. While South Alabama boasts a +9 turnover differential compared to Texas State’s -7, seventh-year veteran TJ McCloud brings steadiness to the Bobcats’ offense. His experience should help avoid costly mistakes, while first-year starter Lopez will contend with Texas State’s potent pass rush, tied for 14th nationally at 2.91 sacks per game.
Prediction: Texas State 34, South Alabama 31
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