One of college football’s greatest rivalries rolls around once again as the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners take center stage at the state fair. But this time, they meet as SEC foes for the first time in history. Can the Longhorns roll like everyone is expecting them to?
Our Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction breaks down the flash points of a fiery encounter alongside the latest odds and a score projection for one of the standout games on the Week 7 schedule.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Oklahoma odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -13.5 - Spread
Texas -17 - Moneyline
Texas -900, Oklahoma +600 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Tex. - Predicted Weather at Kick
87 degrees, sunny, nine mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The DraftKings Sportsbook opened the spread at -14.5 in favor of Texas, and it sat there for most of the week. However, from 9 am ET to just after noon, the line moved a full point and a half to Texas -17 just an hour or two before kick.
While Texas has won just eight Red River Rivalry games since 2000, the Longhorns have won four of those by at least two touchdowns.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Texas has covered twice as a double-digit favorite this season, while Oklahoma is 1-1 against the spread as an underdog. Meanwhile, the total points line dropped over the course of the week, starting over 50 points and dropping to 49 by Friday.
Prediction for Texas vs. Oklahoma
On paper, Texas looks like the clear favorite over Oklahoma. But if there’s one game where expectations often get thrown out the window, it’s the Red River Showdown.
The underdog has come out on top in five of the last 11 regular season matchups, including Oklahoma’s 34-30 upset last year over a Texas squad that went on to make the College Football Playoff. That Oklahoma team struggled to stop anyone. This year’s Sooners are having trouble scoring.
Oklahoma’s pace will be a key factor to watch. Their offense hasn’t found its rhythm this season, but it performs better when playing at a faster tempo. The problem? Speeding up the game might backfire in 2024. And they’re set to be without Deion Burks among a cast of wide receivers who will be inactive for this one.
While Oklahoma’s defense is among the nation’s best, Texas will capitalize on any extra possessions and put points on the board.
It’s a classic catch-22. If Oklahoma plays faster, they might move the ball more effectively, but it would give Texas more chances to score. On the flip side, slowing the game down could limit Texas’ offensive opportunities but risks stalling the Sooners’ own offense.
The health of Quinn Ewers looms large as well. The Texas quarterback hasn’t played since getting hurt in Week 3 against UTSA. While Arch Manning has stepped up admirably, Ewers has extensive Red River Showdown experience and was named the starter earlier this week.
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Oklahoma’s defense is elite, and with Ewers possibly shaking off some rust and the unpredictable nature of this rivalry, I expect a much closer contest than many anticipate.
Look for Brent Venables to dial up exotic blitzes and try to force Ewers into mistakes. Oklahoma could very well win the turnover battle, which would be a huge boost.
In the end, Texas gets the win, but it’ll be a grind.
Prediction: Texas 27, Oklahoma 17
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