The Texas Longhorns sit comfortably in the SEC driver’s seat for a College Football Playoff spot following the latest rankings release. But Week 12 brings a tough road test against an Arkansas Razorbacks squad fueled by deep-seated rivalry and a whole lot of animosity.
Can the Razorbacks rise to the occasion? Our Texas vs. Arkansas prediction breaks it all down—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for each team as the 2024 college football season barrels toward its conclusion.
Texas vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -13.5 - Spread
Texas -12.5 - Moneyline
Texas -500, Arkansas +380 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, AR - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Saturday afternoon sees the 80th edition of a rivalry that has no name but is as bitter for at least one of the teams as any in college football. While Arkansas has won the last two meetings (2021, 2014), Texas holds a significant head-to-head advantage, taking a 56-23 series lead into the Week 12 outing. Unsurprisingly, they’re favored to increase the gap this Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That said, there has already been some movement in the Texas vs. Arkansas odds. The Longhorns opened as a 15.5-point favorite, but the line has come down to -13.5 by midweek. That falls in line with the initial CFN FPM spread, giving a good marker. However, our prediction anticipates a much tighter battle. Texas has covered just twice in their last five games this fall.
Texas’ Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Longhorns are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Texas has an 83.5% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the second-hardest remaining game of the year for the Longhorns, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Arkansas: 83.5%
- vs. Kentucky: 94.4%
- at Texas A&M: 61.9%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Arkansas has a 16.5% chance of beating the Longhorns at home. FPM thinks the Razorbacks will make a bowl, as they’re 5-4 and heavily favored in a game against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. But to get to a winning regular season, they’ll need to pull off an upset.
- vs. Texas: 16.5%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 91.5%
- at Missouri: 32.3%
Prediction for Texas vs. Arkansas
The Longhorns have been impressive this year, but timing has been on their side more often than not. They faced the Florida Gators when they were down to their third-string quarterback and took on Vanderbilt with Diego Pavia nursing injuries.
Outside of their loss to the Georgia Bulldogs — a game where Texas didn’t exactly shine — their first season in the SEC has offered a fairly smooth ride.
That said, Arkansas might present the toughest challenge yet for the Longhorns.
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The Razorbacks were blown out by Ole Miss before their bye week, but context matters. Lane Kiffin is the type of coach who doesn’t let up once he finds a weakness, piling on to boost his team’s metrics. Arkansas fell into a negative game script early and never climbed out.
Flush that game and move on. With extra prep time during the bye week, I think Sam Pittman and his squad are primed to give the third-ranked (second-seed) Longhorns all they can handle.
One thing Texas hasn’t faced this season? A true dual-threat quarterback. They dodged Lagway and only saw Pavia at less than full strength. Even then, a hobbled Pavia gave them fits, rushing for 67 yards and keeping the defense on its heels. Without two costly interceptions, Vanderbilt might’ve pulled off the upset.
I’m not calling for the Razorbacks to win outright, but it wouldn’t shock me if they did. Taylen Green’s mobility could give Texas trouble, forcing their pass rush to adjust and opening up opportunities for big plays on the ground. If Green and the running backs can capitalize early, it might create openings in the passing game.
This is the type of matchup that could upend the SEC race — and send shockwaves through the College Football Playoff picture.
Ultimately, I think the Longhorns’ offense will pull through in the end, but don’t expect an easy win. If Arkansas can convert yards into points, this could be much closer than anyone expects.
Prediction: Texas 31, Arkansas 28
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