The Texas Longhorns are firmly in control of their path to a College Football Playoff spot, comfortably leading the SEC race following the latest rankings. However, Week 12 presents a significant challenge—a road clash against an Arkansas Razorbacks team brimming with rivalry-fueled intensity and no shortage of animosity.
Will the Razorbacks step up to the moment? Our Texas vs. Arkansas prediction dives into everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as the 2024 college football season approaches its thrilling conclusion.
Texas vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -13.5 - Spread
Texas -12.5 - Moneyline
Texas -500, Arkansas +380 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, AR - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Saturday afternoon sees the 80th edition of a rivalry that has no name but is as bitter for at least one of the teams as any in college football. While Arkansas has won the last two meetings (2021, 2014), Texas holds a significant head-to-head advantage, taking a 56-23 series lead into the Week 12 outing. Unsurprisingly, they’re favored to increase the gap this Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That said, there has already been some movement in the Texas vs. Arkansas odds. The Longhorns opened as a 15.5-point favorite, but the line has come down to -12.5 by midweek. That falls in line with the initial CFN FPM spread, giving a good marker. However, our prediction anticipates a much tighter battle. Texas has covered just twice in their last five games this fall.
Texas’ Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Longhorns are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Texas has an 83.5% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the second-hardest remaining game of the year for the Longhorns, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Arkansas: 83.5%
- vs. Kentucky: 94.4%
- at Texas A&M: 61.9%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Arkansas has a 16.5% chance of beating the Longhorns at home. FPM thinks the Razorbacks will make a bowl, as they’re 5-4 and heavily favored in a game against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. But to get to a winning regular season, they’ll need to pull off an upset.
- vs. Texas: 16.5%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 91.5%
- at Missouri: 32.3%
Prediction for Texas vs. Arkansas
The Longhorns have had an impressive run this season, but let’s be honest—timing has played a big role. They caught the Florida Gators with a third-string quarterback under center and faced Vanderbilt while Diego Pavia was nursing injuries.
Apart from their loss to the Georgia Bulldogs—a game where Texas didn’t exactly rise to the occasion—their debut season in the SEC has been relatively smooth sailing.
That said, Arkansas could be their toughest challenge yet.
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The Razorbacks were blown out by Ole Miss before their bye week, but context is key. Lane Kiffin’s coaching style is ruthless—once he spots a weakness, he exploits it relentlessly to pad his team’s metrics. Arkansas got caught in a bad game script early and couldn’t recover.
Forget that game and move forward. With extra preparation during the bye, Sam Pittman’s squad looks ready to push the third-ranked (second-seed) Longhorns to their limit.
Here’s something Texas hasn’t faced yet: a true dual-threat quarterback. They avoided Lagway and only dealt with a banged-up Pavia. Even then, Pavia managed to rush for 67 yards and kept their defense on edge. Without two costly interceptions, Vanderbilt might’ve pulled off a shocker.
I’m not predicting an outright Arkansas win—but I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull it off. Taylen Green’s mobility could be a real problem for Texas, forcing their pass rush to adapt and opening the door for big plays on the ground. If Green and his backfield can capitalize early, it might soften up Texas’ defense for the passing game.
This matchup has all the ingredients to shake up the SEC race—and potentially rattle the College Football Playoff picture.
In the end, I believe Texas’ offense will find a way to secure the win, but it won’t come easy. If Arkansas can turn yards into points, this game could be much closer than anyone expects.
Prediction: Texas 31, Arkansas 28
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