The Texas Longhorns have a clear path to the College Football Playoff, sitting confidently atop the SEC standings following the latest rankings. But Week 12 brings a formidable test—a road showdown against an Arkansas Razorbacks team fueled by rivalry passion and plenty of bad blood.
Can the Razorbacks rise to the occasion? Our Texas vs. Arkansas prediction breaks down everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as the 2024 college football season nears its dramatic finale.
Texas vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -13.5 - Spread
Texas -13 - Moneyline
Texas -535, Arkansas +400 - Over/Under
58.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, AR - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Saturday afternoon marks the 80th meeting in a rivalry that may lack an official name but certainly doesn’t lack intensity—at least for one of the teams. Arkansas has claimed victory in the last two matchups (2021, 2014), yet Texas maintains a commanding lead in the series, boasting a 56-23 record heading into Week 12. Predictably, the Longhorns are favored to extend that margin on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, the Texas vs. Arkansas odds have already seen some shifts. Texas opened as a 15.5-point favorite, but by midweek, the line dropped to -12.5, aligning closely with CFN FPM’s initial projection. Even so, our analysis predicts a much closer contest. Texas has covered the spread just twice in their last five games this season, adding an extra layer of intrigue to this heated matchup.
Texas’ Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Longhorns are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Texas has an 83.5% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the second-hardest remaining game of the year for the Longhorns, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Arkansas: 83.5%
- vs. Kentucky: 94.4%
- at Texas A&M: 61.9%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Arkansas has a 16.5% chance of beating the Longhorns at home. FPM thinks the Razorbacks will make a bowl, as they’re 5-4 and heavily favored in a game against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. But to get to a winning regular season, they’ll need to pull off an upset.
- vs. Texas: 16.5%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 91.5%
- at Missouri: 32.3%
Prediction for Texas vs. Arkansas
The Longhorns have had an impressive season so far, but let’s call it what it is—timing has been on their side. They faced the Florida Gators with a third-string quarterback and caught Vanderbilt while Diego Pavia was dealing with injuries.
Outside of their loss to the Georgia Bulldogs—a game where Texas didn’t exactly rise to the occasion—their inaugural SEC campaign has been relatively smooth sailing.
That changes this Saturday. Arkansas could be their toughest test yet.
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Sure, the Razorbacks were blown out by Ole Miss before their bye, but let’s not overlook the context. Lane Kiffin’s coaching style is ruthless—find a weakness, exploit it, and rack up stats. Arkansas got trapped in a bad game script early and couldn’t recover.
Forget that loss. With extra time to prepare during the bye, Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks seem primed to give the third-ranked (second-seeded) Longhorns all they can handle.
And here’s the wild card: Texas hasn’t faced a true dual-threat quarterback this season. They missed Lagway entirely and only faced a banged-up Pavia, who still managed to rush for 67 yards and keep their defense guessing. Without two costly interceptions, Vanderbilt might’ve pulled off a major upset.
I’m not calling an outright Arkansas win—but I wouldn’t rule it out. Taylen Green’s mobility could spell trouble for Texas, forcing their pass rush to adjust and creating opportunities for explosive plays on the ground. If Green and his backfield can make an early impact, it could set the stage for a much-needed balanced attack.
This game has all the makings of a classic SEC showdown, one that could shake up the conference race—and even rattle the College Football Playoff picture.
Ultimately, I think Texas’ offense will find a way to grind out the win, but it won’t be easy. If Arkansas can turn yards into points, this one could be a lot closer than anyone expects.
Prediction: Texas 31, Arkansas 28
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