Goodbye, first round of the College Football Playoff. Hello, quarterfinals.
Up next, the Texas Longhorns square off against the Arizona State Sun Devils in just the second meeting ever between these two programs. The first? A memorable 52-34 Texas victory back in 2007.
Who comes out on top this time? Our Texas vs. Arizona State prediction dives into everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to the high stakes both teams face in this pivotal second-round matchup of the 2024 College Football Playoff.
Texas vs. Arizona State College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -6 - Spread
Texas -13 - Moneyline
Texas -520, Arizona State +390 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
1 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Jan. 1 - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
The Sun Devils have been a fruitful underdog this year, going 4-2 against the spread and winning four outright. They’ve also rattled off six straight victories ATS. Their games have often resulted in fireworks as well, with the over cashing in five of the last six contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Texas has been favored all year but is only 1-3 ATS in its last four as double-digit favorites. At least the Longhorns just snapped a four-game streak of under in their dominant first-round win over the Clemson Tigers.
Texas’ Winning Probability
The Longhorns have steadily progressed under Steve Sarkisian, going from 5-7 to 8-5 to 12-2 and a CFP berth last season. Although they fell short 37-31 to the Washington Huskies, they came right back with an 11-2 campaign in their SEC debut.
Now it is time to prove the program is a true national title contender, especially with both losses coming against the Georgia Bulldogs this year.
- at Arizona State: 66.4%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
The Sun Devils pulled off the unthinkable this year, going from 3-9 to 11-2 in Year 2 of the Kenny Dillingham era. More than that, they won the Big 12 championship despite being picked to finish last in the conference and will play in their first postseason contest since 2021.
- vs. Texas: 33.6%
Prediction for Texas vs. Arizona State
Texas has owned the trenches this season, dominating on both sides of the ball. However, the one lingering question mark remains under center. Quinn Ewers’ decision-making has taken a step back from last year, lowering the offense’s floor, even as its ceiling remains sky-high.
On the other side, Arizona State has been the model of consistency, riding RB Cam Skattebo to an impressive 11-win season. With a 60.69% run rate—the 11th highest in the nation—the Sun Devils have leaned heavily on their ground game, and QB Sam Leavitt has delivered when it counts, complementing their physical style perfectly.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Head coach Kenny Dillingham didn’t shy away from the underdog narrative on Dec. 16, stating, “Everybody’s going to tell them how good they are this week when they go home and all that stuff, and hopefully they can get that flushed out of their mind when we come back Sunday and realize that we’re still probably the worst team in this playoff according to what everybody believes. So we still have a chip on our shoulder.”
Oddsmakers seem to agree, as Arizona State enters the playoff tied with Boise State and Clemson as a +6,000 long shot to win it all—the steepest odds in the 12-team field.
The Sun Devils’ improbable run has been a fantastic story, and they’re likely to push the Longhorns more than Clemson did. But Texas’ sheer talent and depth should ultimately be the difference. Defensively, the Longhorns rank seventh in EPA per rush, 13th in third- and fourth-down success rate, and first in net points per drive. If anyone can slow down Skattebo, it’s this unit.
Offensively, it all comes down to Ewers. If he can avoid critical mistakes, Texas should find plenty of opportunities against an Arizona State defense that ranks 48th in early-down EPA, 70th in success rate, and 57th in points allowed per drive.
Expect Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns to keep their CFP hopes alive with a convincing—yet hard-fought—win over the Sun Devils.
Prediction: Texas 34, Arizona State 27
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