The Tennessee Volunteers have slowly seen their College Football Playoff hopes rise after beating Oklahoma on the road and seeing several other teams stumble. The road to the playoff continues with one of just two remaining true road games.
Arkansas begins a brutal stretch looking for an upset to earn bowl eligibility. Can the Razorbacks keep it close against a high-powered Volunteer offense and a deceptively strong defense? Step this way for a full Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -13 - Spread
Tennessee -14 - Moneyline
Tennessee -520, Arkansas +390 - Over/Under
57 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, AR - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, clear, five mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Since the early release of the Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds, there has been no backing down from the Volunteers being a near-two touchdown favorite. The DraftKings Sportsbook odds have been in lockstep with CFN’s Football Playoff Meter the whole way through, just perhaps a half point, or on Friday, a full point away in favor of the Vols.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
If you want to feel even more confident in the Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds, and more specifically, the Volunteers’ chances, consider the fact that they’re 4-0 against the spread. Josh Heupel’s team has covered as a double-digit favorite and a single-digit favorite and has won every game by at least 10 points.
Something else to factor in: Every all-SEC game in 2024 involving the two teams has gone under the points line.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is more aligned with Vegas for Tennessee in Week 6 as their win probability sits at 82.8%. And yet, that represents the Volunteers’ third-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, far behind games with Alabama and Georgia.
Tennessee’s win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Arkansas: 82.8%
- vs. Florida: 93.4%
- vs. Alabama: 49.4%
- vs. Kentucky: 87.2%
- vs. Mississippi State: 96.3%
- at Georgia: 35.9%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 95.8%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Arkansas has a 17.2% chance to win on Saturday. FPM isn’t very kind to Arkansas, and it’s largely because of a schedule that includes LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, and Missouri.
In fact, Tennessee represents only the third-hardest game remaining on Arkansas’ schedule. The path to a bowl game or better will need to be paved with an upset or two, as the Razorbacks have a win probability of less than 25% in five of their remaining seven games.
Arkansas’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Tennessee: 17.2%
- vs. LSU: 21.9%
- at Mississippi State: 68.8%
- vs. Ole Miss: 24.9%
- vs. Texas: 11.4%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 87.8%
- at Missouri: 11.9%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Arkansas
Sam Pittman’s squad is teetering on the edge after missing out on two very winnable games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M; Tennessee might be on another level entirely, but can Arkansas at least make it a competitive game?
One of the lesser-talked-about stories this season is just how dominant Tennessee’s defensive line has been—a unit that flies under the radar but has given quarterbacks nightmares all year. Their run defense is the best in the nation, and the Volunteers are allowing only 8.3 points per game.
On the offensive side, Tennessee is hammering the ground game at an impressive rate. In fact, they rank second in rush rate among all non-service academy teams.
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I have little confidence that Arkansas’ defense will be able to slow the Volunteers down, and even less faith that the Razorbacks can run the ball effectively against this formidable Tennessee front. That puts the burden squarely on Taylen Green to be a pure pocket passer.
If that’s the case, I don’t see Arkansas putting up many points. The Razorback defense has had its moments this season, and Nico Iamaleava could face some challenges.
In the end, I think Tennessee takes care of business, but this Razorback defense is a step up from some of the early-season opponents Tennessee blew out. Once they build a comfortable lead, the Vols will lean on the run game to seal the deal, and I don’t expect them to run up the score.
Prediction: Tennessee 34, Arkansas 14
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