The Tennessee Volunteers have quietly boosted their College Football Playoff chances after taking down Oklahoma on the road and watching other contenders falter. Their path to the playoff now continues with one of just two remaining true road tests.
Arkansas, meanwhile, kicks off a grueling stretch in need of a statement win to keep their bowl hopes alive. Can the Razorbacks hang with Tennessee’s explosive offense and sneaky-good defense? Check out our full Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction to find out.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -13 - Spread
Tennessee -14 - Moneyline
Tennessee -520, Arkansas +390 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, AR - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, clear, five mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Since the early release of the Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds, there has been no backing down from the Volunteers being a near-two touchdown favorite. The DraftKings Sportsbook odds have been in lockstep with CFN’s Football Playoff Meter the whole way through, just perhaps a half point, or on Friday, a full point away in favor of the Vols.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
If you want to feel even more confident in the Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds, and more specifically, the Volunteers’ chances, consider the fact that they’re 4-0 against the spread. Josh Heupel’s team has covered as a double-digit favorite and a single-digit favorite and has won every game by at least 10 points.
Something else to factor in: Ahead of Week 6, every all-SEC game in 2024 involving the two teams has gone under the points line.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is more aligned with Vegas for Tennessee in Week 6 as their win probability sits at 82.8%. And yet, that represents the Volunteers’ third-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, far behind games with Alabama and Georgia.
Tennessee’s win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Arkansas: 82.8%
- vs. Florida: 93.4%
- vs. Alabama: 49.4%
- vs. Kentucky: 87.2%
- vs. Mississippi State: 96.3%
- at Georgia: 35.9%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 95.8%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Arkansas has a 17.2% chance to win on Saturday. FPM isn’t very kind to Arkansas, and it’s largely because of a schedule that includes LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, and Missouri.
In fact, Tennessee represents only the third-hardest game remaining on Arkansas’ schedule. The path to a bowl game or better will need to be paved with an upset or two, as the Razorbacks have a win probability of less than 25% in five of their remaining seven games.
Arkansas’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Tennessee: 17.2%
- vs. LSU: 21.9%
- at Mississippi State: 68.8%
- vs. Ole Miss: 24.9%
- vs. Texas: 11.4%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 87.8%
- at Missouri: 11.9%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Arkansas
Sam Pittman’s squad is on shaky ground after letting two very winnable games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M slip away. Tennessee might be a different beast altogether, but can Arkansas at least keep it competitive?
One of the under-the-radar stories this year is just how dominant Tennessee’s defensive line has been—a unit that’s quietly terrorized opposing quarterbacks all season. Their run defense is the nation’s best, and they’re allowing just 8.3 points per game.
On offense, Tennessee is pounding the rock at an impressive clip, ranking second in rush rate among all non-service academy teams.
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I don’t see Arkansas’ defense being able to contain the Vols, and I have even less confidence that the Razorbacks will be able to establish any sort of ground game against this relentless Tennessee front. That puts the pressure squarely on Taylen Green to thrive as a pocket passer.
If that’s the scenario, I don’t see Arkansas generating much offense. The Razorback defense has shown flashes of promise, so Nico Iamaleava might face a few hurdles.
Ultimately, I think Tennessee handles their business, but Arkansas’ defense is a step up from some of the early-season teams Tennessee has dismantled. Expect the Vols to build a solid lead and lean on their run game to close it out without running up the score.
Prediction: Tennessee 34, Arkansas 14
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