Few teams had a better week than the Tennessee Volunteers—despite only playing a buy game against the UTEP Miners. It wasn’t about what they did, but what their key College Football Playoff rivals didn’t do. Losses by the Alabama Crimson Tide, Texas A&M Aggies, Ole Miss Rebels, and Indiana Hoosiers all worked in Tennessee’s favor, strengthening their playoff bid.
Now, the Volunteers just need to handle business against the Vanderbilt Commodores to lock in a first-round playoff game, potentially on their home turf. But could Diego Pavia pull off one last upset? Find out where we stand in this Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt prediction.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -12 - Spread
Tennessee -10.5 - Moneyline
Tennessee -395, Vanderbilt +310 - Over/Under
47 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 29, Noon ET - Location
FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
39 degrees, partly cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The only thing standing between Tennessee and a spot in the College Football Playoff is Vanderbilt. But if the Commodores can pull off the upset, the Volunteers will tumble out of playoff contention and fall just short once again.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total shows the strength of these defenses and the spread, while still double-digits, is much closer than what we’ve seen in previous seasons. The spread of Tennessee -10.5 and total of 47 points implies a final score close to 29-18, in favor of the Volunteers.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is close to the Vegas line, making the Volunteers 12-point favorites. That translates to a winning percentage of 82.1% which should be close to their College Football Playoff chances as this is as close to a “win and in” situation as you’ll find this season.
- at Vanderbilt: 82.1%
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
Vanderbilt has a 17.9% chance to win, per FPM. A win would turn a good season into a winning season for the Commodores, who are looking to close out the season with a win after losing two-straight.
- vs. Tennessee: 17.9%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
The shine hasn’t exactly worn off the Commodores—it’s more about the brutal stretch of games they’ve faced late in the season. Close losses on the road to LSU and Texas, combined with a tough outing against South Carolina’s relentless pass rush, have taken them from 5-2 to 6-5.
Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn’t exactly dominated in SEC play but has managed to grind out wins against a softer conference schedule. The Volunteers are just 2-2 against SEC opponents with three or more conference wins.
That record has hurt them in tiebreakers, but it’s kept them alive in the College Football Playoff race.
The Volunteers’ success this season has been built on a power-rushing, defense-first approach, with Dylan Sampson leading the charge. When he’s rolling, Tennessee is tough to beat. But they’ve struggled against teams that can both run the ball effectively and shut down the run—two things Vanderbilt does well.
What intrigues me most about this matchup is how Tennessee handles Vanderbilt’s two-high shell defense.
The Commodores excel at limiting explosive plays, forcing opponents to sustain long, methodical drives. While this often leads to lopsided time-of-possession numbers in favor of their opponents, it’s exactly how Vanderbilt wants to play.
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This approach creates a fascinating clash, as Tennessee’s offense thrives on slow, deliberate drives but has also relied on the occasional big play.
Can the Commodores generate enough disruption to throw the Volunteers off schedule? If they can, Tennessee might struggle to sustain drives and produce the chunk plays they need.
I see Tennessee ultimately pulling this one out, given the stakes and their depth. But don’t be surprised if it’s a one-score game heading into the second half. Vanderbilt will aim to limit possessions, setting the stage for a few magical moments from Diego Pavia.
That said, Tennessee’s defensive front is too talented, and their overall depth should wear down the Commodores. While I don’t love the spread, I do think Vanderbilt can do enough defensively to keep it close and cover.
Prediction: Tennessee 23, Vanderbilt 14
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