The Tennessee Volunteers may not be in the SEC Championship Game, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be paying attention to the outcome. Here are the Vols’ multitude of College Football Playoff scenarios based on the results from conference championship week.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Projecting Tennessee’s Opponents
Below, we’ve listed all the potential outcomes for Tennessee. Given the latest rankings, these are the teams the Volunteers would play based on the results of the Big Ten and SEC championships.
What If Texas Wins the SEC and Oregon Wins the Big Ten?
The Texas Longhorns and Oregon Ducks enter their respective conference championships as slight favorites, but their outcomes could ripple through the College Football Playoff rankings.
If Texas defeats the Georgia Bulldogs, Kirby Smart and Co. will finish with three losses this season. Ranked No. 5 heading into the weekend, they sit ahead of No. 7 Tennessee after knocking off the Vols and the Longhorns earlier in the year.
The committee’s tendency to penalize teams heavily for losses (they say they won’t “punish” teams for losing in the championships) makes it worth watching, though it seems unlikely Georgia will fall behind Tennessee due to their head-to-head matchup and strength of schedule.
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The Penn State Nittany Lions’ matchup with Oregon, however, presents a more favorable scenario for Tennessee. A Nittany Lions loss would drop them to two on the season, with no marquee wins comparable to the Vols’ victory over the Alabama Crimson Tide.
For Tennessee fans dreaming of a home playoff game, an Oregon blowout of Penn State could be their clearest path to a top-six seed.
Realistically, neither team gets blown out, and the Vols remain at No. 9, which would put them against the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes in Round 1.
What If Texas Loses the SEC and Oregon Loses the Big Ten?
Oregon and Texas losing would drop them to the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds, respectively, with the top four spots going to the highest-ranked conference champions.
Unless there is a massive blowout — likely plus an injury to an impactful payer — the committee isn’t dropping either of these two teams further than that.
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A Penn State win also boosts Ohio State’s strength of schedule, keeping them above the Vols. As a result, Tennessee is right back where we started: facing the Buckeyes on the road in the first round.
The Volunteers may not control their destiny, but a chaotic championship weekend could still reshape their path in the playoff.
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