The College Football Playoffs kick off on Dec. 20, and one of the most intriguing first-round matchups pits the Tennessee Volunteers against the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Can the Volunteers show they’re ready to take the leap toward sustained success? Or will Ryan Day and the Buckeyes rebound from the sting of a fourth consecutive loss to the Michigan Wolverines? Let’s dive into our breakdown and prediction for Tennessee vs. Ohio State.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State College Football Playoff First-Round Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -5 - Spread
Ohio State -7 - Moneyline
Ohio State -290, Tennessee +235 - Over/Under
46 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, OH - How To Watch
ABC
Though these two teams have been around for over a century, they’ve only ever met once — a New Year’s Day 1996 Citrus Bowl clash. The Volunteers won that one, 20-14, and will look for a similar result on the road this time.
There hasn’t been much early-line movement, with the spread hovering around 7.5 points in favor of the Buckeyes. Vegas expects a low-scoring game between two defenses. This is Tennessee’s first College Football Playoff appearance, compared to Ohio State’s fifth.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Volunteers, making them underdogs of only five points. That translates to a winning probability of 35.4%.
Weather could be an issue for the road Volunteers, led by Southern California-raised quarterback Nico Iamaleava. If the Volunteers pulled off the upset, they’d face the Oregon Ducks on their path to the national championship.
- at Ohio State: 35.4%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Buckeyes are moderate favorites, with a winning probability of 64.6%. They’ll want to defend their home field and make a deep run into the College Football Playoff. Just like with Tennessee, if the Buckeyes win, they’d face Oregon on their path to the national championship.
- vs. Tenneessee: 57.4%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Ohio State
The first-round showdown between Tennessee and Ohio State has all the ingredients to be the most thrilling early College Football Playoff matchup. In my opinion, two key elements will likely decide the outcome: team identity and the weather.
First, I can’t help but question Ohio State’s offensive philosophy. Do Chip Kelly and Ryan Day not trust quarterback Will Howard, or are they underestimating their own elite receiving corps?
Take their game against Michigan, for example. Howard threw 33 passes, but only 10 traveled beyond 10 air yards. This, despite the fact that Ohio State’s stacked group of receivers faced a Wolverines secondary that was plagued with injuries.
Was this an oversight of an obvious mismatch, or did they think deep shots were too risky? Whatever their reasoning, it didn’t pan out—they mustered just 10 points.
Defensively, the Buckeyes had no answer for Michigan’s straightforward rushing attack. That’s a glaring issue heading into a matchup with Tennessee—a team built similarly but with even more firepower.
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When comparing the two, Tennessee feels like a refined version of Michigan. The Volunteers feature a better offensive line, running back, quarterback, and defensive line while playing the same brand of hard-nosed, physical football.
If Ohio State can’t stop the run, this entire breakdown might be moot.
That said, Tennessee isn’t without its own questions—particularly regarding the weather. Nico Iamaleava is a Southern California native, and while it’s too early to know the forecast, snow could be in the mix. How will the young SEC quarterback handle cold conditions?
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Ohio State will be hoping it’s a struggle. Outside of their experience and a hefty payroll, the Buckeyes are facing a Tennessee squad that appears stronger across nearly every phase of the game. Plus, the Volunteers are getting plenty of points.
I’ve already grabbed Tennessee +7.5 and might even sprinkle on the moneyline, though I’ll wait until the weather forecast solidifies.
To be fair, Ohio State’s passing attack is capable of moving the ball. But Tennessee’s defensive line has the ability to disrupt a Buckeyes offensive line that’s still finding its footing. That said, I trust Kelly to scheme up opportunities for elite playmakers like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.
If this game comes down to the wire, Ohio State’s experience could be the deciding factor. But from a betting perspective, I’m all in on Tennessee here. The Volunteers should cover, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this tight contest edges over the total.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Tennessee 23
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