The Tennessee Volunteers, along with the College GameDay crew, head to Athens in Week 12 for a showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs—a game packed with major SEC and College Football Playoff implications. With Kirby Smart’s squad slipping out of the latest 12-team CFP bracket, could we be witnessing a changing of the guard?
Our Tennessee vs. Georgia prediction breaks down every angle of this pivotal matchup—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as the 2024 college football season approaches its climax.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -4 - Spread
Georgia -9.5 - Moneyline
Georgia -375, Tennessee +295 - Over/Under
47 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Sanford Stadium | Athens, GA - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
If you want a graphic demonstration of how seismic a Tennessee win in Week 12 would be, take one look at the history of this all-SEC clash. While the 28-23-2 advantage the Bulldogs hold heading into the 54th edition might seem slender, Georgia is on a seven-game winning streak. The Volunteers haven’t won in Athens since 2016 but could end that run on Saturday night.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The oddsmakers have Kirby Smart’s team as a 10-point favorite, likely buoyed by uncertainty around Tennessee starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The CFN FPM makes the game tighter, and our prediction goes one step further in examining what the Vols could accomplish in Week 12. Georgia is just 2-7 against the spread this season. Tennessee is 5-4 ATS in 2024.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Volunteers are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Tennessee has a 38.1% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the hardest remaining game of the year for the Volunteers, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Georgia: 38.1%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.6%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Georgia has a 61.9% chance of beating the Volunteers at home. The Bulldogs’ path to the College Football Playoff got a bit more difficult after a loss to Ole Miss on Saturday
- vs. Tennessee: 61.9%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 82.1%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Georgia
I won’t sugarcoat it: The Georgia Bulldogs are not 10 points better than the Tennessee Volunteers. The real question is whether I’m bold enough to sprinkle a little on the moneyline for the road underdogs.
Strip the “G” off Georgia’s helmet, and you’re left with a team that’s played one truly solid game all season. Sure, the Bulldogs have the talent to outlast opponents, but outside of a strong showing against Texas, they haven’t looked particularly dominant.
If Georgia’s defensive line replicates their Texas performance this Saturday, they might cover. But I’m betting on Tennessee’s run game to keep them out of obvious passing situations—something Texas couldn’t manage.
It’s taken time to embrace the identity of this Tennessee team—a power-running, defensive-minded squad—but that’s who they are. And their defensive line has the ability to generate serious pressure against Georgia.
If Tennessee’s front can disrupt Carson Beck, this game could get ugly fast. Over the past three weeks, Beck has struggled mightily under pressure, ranking among the worst quarterbacks in major college football in those situations.
In his last three games, Beck hasn’t faced overwhelming pressure—just 37 pressures on 125 dropbacks. But his response to those moments is alarming: eight completions, seven sacks, and five interceptions, leading to a passer rating of 0.0. Unless Beck dramatically improves or Tennessee fails to bring pressure, Georgia’s offense could be in serious trouble.
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I’ll admit I was wrong if one of those things happens. But I see Tennessee bringing the heat and forcing Beck into costly mistakes. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s ability to control the clock will be pivotal, and a few drive-ending plays on defense could pave the way for the upset.
Nico Iamaleava’s health could be a factor here, but if we trust Josh Heupel, Tennessee’s quarterback should be good to go. If Iamaleava can connect on a couple of deep shots, the Volunteers will have the upper hand.
Betting against Kirby Smart is never easy, especially when he can play the “disrespected” card after the College Football Playoff rankings. But this doesn’t feel like one of his strongest teams, even if their talent says otherwise on paper.
I’m calling it: an upset. Tennessee forces turnovers, controls the clock, and ekes out a low-scoring road win over Georgia.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Georgia 20
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